@article {mor2025,
	title = {The Impact Of A Freshwater Diluted Plume On Spatial Halite Accumulation In A Hypersaline Lake: Direct Observations From The Dead Sea},
	journal = {Sedimentology},
	year = {2025},
	doi = {10.1111/sed.70023},
	author = {Ziv Mor and Haggai Eyal and Ido Sirota and Roie Ezraty and Efrat Morin and Eckart Meiburg and Nadav G. Lensky}
}
@article {abir2024,
	title = {Air{\textendash}Sea Interactions In Stable Atmospheric Conditions: Lessons From The Desert Semi-Enclosed Gulf Of Eilat (Aqaba)},
	journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics},
	volume = {24},
	number = {10},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {6177{\textendash}6195},
	doi = {10.5194/acp-24-6177-2024},
	author = {Shai Abir and Hamish A. McGowan and Yonatan Shaked and Hezi Gildor and Efrat Morin and Nadav G. Lensky}
}
@article {rosin2024,
	title = {Exploring Patterns In Precipitation Intensity{\textendash}Duration{\textendash}Area{\textendash}Frequency Relationships Using Weather Radar Data},
	journal = {Hydrology And Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {28},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {3549{\textendash}3566},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-28-3549-2024},
	author = {Talia Rosin and Francesco Marra and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {mor2024,
	title = {Hourly to Weekly Variations in Halite Precipitation From the Hypersaline Dead Sea: The Role of Evaporation, Water Cooling and Freshwater Plume Stability},
	journal = {Sedimentology},
	volume = {71},
	number = {7},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {2378{\textendash}2403},
	doi = {10.1111/sed.13220},
	author = {Ziv Mor and Gil Noy and Haggai Eyal and Ido Sirota and Roie Ezraty and Efrat Morin and Nadav G. Lensky}
}
@article {shmilovitz2024,
	title = {Impacts Of Rainstorm Intensity And Temporal Pattern On Caprock Cliff Persistence And Hillslope Morphology In Drylands},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface},
	volume = {129},
	number = {2},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {e2023JF007478},
	doi = {10.1029/2023JF007478},
	author = {Yuval Shmilovitz and Gregory E. Tucker and Matthew W. Rossi and Efrat Morin and Moshe Armon and Joel Pederson and Benjamin Campforts and Itai Haviv and Yehouda Enzel}
}
@article {garfinkel2024,
	title = {Precursors Of Summer Heat Waves In The Eastern Mediterranean},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
	volume = {150},
	number = {763},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {3757{\textendash}3773},
	doi = {10.1002/qj.4795},
	author = {Chaim I. Garfinkel and Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein and Efrat Morin and Assaf Hochman and Chen Schwartz and Ronit Nirel}
}
@article {Shmilovitz2023,
	title = {Aspect-dependent bedrock weathering, cliff retreat, and cliff morphology in a hyperarid environment},
	journal = {GSA Bulletin},
	volume = {135},
	year = {2023},
	month = {7},
	pages = {1955-1966},
	publisher = {GeoScienceWorld},
	abstract = {Deciphering aspect-related hillslope asymmetry can enhance our understanding of the influence of climate on Earth{\textquoteright}s surface morphology and the linkage between topographic morphology and erosion processes. Although hillslope asymmetry is documented worldwide, the role of microclimatic factors in the evolution of dryland cliffs has received little attention. Here, we address this gap by quantifying aspect-dependent bedrock weathering, slope-rill morphology, and subcliff clast transport rates in the hyperarid Negev desert, Israel, based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived topography, clast-size measurements, and cosmogenic 10Be concentrations. Cliff retreat rates were evaluated using extrapolated profiles from dated talus flatirons and 10Be measurements from the cliff face and sub-cliff sediments. We document systematic, aspect-dependent patterns of south-facing slopes being less steep and finer-grained relative to east and north-facing aspects. In addition, cliff retreat and clast transport rates on slopes of the south-facing aspect are faster compared to the other aspects. Our data demonstrate that bedrock weathering of the cliff face and the corresponding grain size of cliff-derived clasts delivered to the slopes constitute a first-order control on cliff retreat and sediment transport rates. We demonstrate that the morphology of the cliff and the pattern of bedrock weathering co-vary with the solar radiation flux and hence that cliff evolution in hyperarid regions is modulated by aspectdependent solar radiation. These results help to better understand interactions between climate and dryland surface processes.},
	issn = {0016-7606},
	doi = {10.1130/B36442.1},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1130/B36442.1;8figures;1table;1supplementalfile.},
	author = {Yuval Shmilovitz and Yehouda Enzel and Efrat Morin and Moshe Armon and Ari Matmon and Amit Mushkin and Joel Pederson and Itai Haviv}
}
@article {Neta2023,
	title = {Seasonal forecasting of pest population dynamics based on downscaled SEAS5 forecasts},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	volume = {480},
	year = {2023},
	month = {6},
	pages = {110326},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {Among the varied environmental factors that influence insect life-history, temperature has a relatively profound effect that can be mathematically estimated with non-linear equations. Thus, many models that aim to predict insect-pest population dynamics use meteorological data as input to descriptive functions that predict the development rate, survival and reproduction of pest populations. In a previous study, we developed a temperature-dependent population dynamics model for the global insect-pest Bemisia tabaci, and verified its accuracy under field conditions. In the current work, which focused on Northern Israel, seasonal meteorological forecasts from the ECMWF SEAS5 coupled model were spatially and temporally stochastically downscaled by a weather generator tool using records from ERA5-Land reanalysis and meteorological stations. The local, hourly temperature time series served as input data to a population dynamics model, creating an ensemble of seasonal population forecasts from which probabilistic predictions could be made already at the beginning of the season (which lasts from March to November). Post-hoc evaluation of the seasonal forecast was done using the observed station temperatures as model input. Comparisons to predictions made using climatologic temperatures found the weather generator-based ones much more accurate in predicting the timing of each insect generation, although there was no difference between the two approaches in predicting the population size. Moreover, the weather generator-based predictions highly matched field observations made by pest inspectors during the growing season of 2021. Taken together, our findings indicate that the developed forecasting tool is capable of providing decision makers with the supporting data required for smart seasonal planning and economical- and environmental-driven optimal management of agricultural systems.},
	keywords = {Bemisia tabaci, ECMWF SEAS5, Population Dynamics, Seasonal forecasting, Stochastic downscaling, weather generator},
	issn = {0304-3800},
	doi = {10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2023.110326},
	author = {Ayana Neta and Yoav Levi and Efrat Morin and Shai Morin}
}
@article {hess-26-1439-2022,
	title = {Coastal and orographic effects on extreme precipitation revealed by weather radar observations},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {26},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1439{\textendash}1458},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022},
	url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/26/1439/2022/},
	author = {Marra, F. and Armon, M. and Morin, E.}
}
@article {Nevo2022,
	title = {Flood forecasting with machine learning models in an operational framework},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {26},
	year = {2022},
	month = {8},
	pages = {4013-4032},
	publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
	abstract = {Google{\textquoteright}s operational flood forecasting system was developed to provide accurate real-time flood warnings to agencies and the public with a focus on riverine floods in large, gauged rivers. It became operational in 2018 and has since expanded geographically. This forecasting system consists of four subsystems: data validation, stage forecasting, inundation modeling, and alert distribution. Machine learning is used for two of the subsystems. Stage forecasting is modeled with the long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and the linear models. Flood inundation is computed with the thresholding and the manifold models, where the former computes inundation extent and the latter computes both inundation extent and depth. The manifold model, presented here for the first time, provides a machine-learning alternative to hydraulic modeling of flood inundation. When evaluated on historical data, all models achieve sufficiently high-performance metrics for operational use. The LSTM showed higher skills than the linear model, while the thresholding and manifold models achieved similar performance metrics for modeling inundation extent. During the 2021 monsoon season, the flood warning system was operational in India and Bangladesh, covering flood-prone regions around rivers with a total area close to 470 000 km2, home to more than 350 000 000 people. More than 100 000 000 flood alerts were sent to affected populations, to relevant authorities, and to emergency organizations. Current and future work on the system includes extending coverage to additional flood-prone locations and improving modeling capabilities and accuracy.},
	issn = {16077938},
	doi = {10.5194/HESS-26-4013-2022},
	author = {Sella Nevo and Efrat Morin and Adi Gerzi Rosenthal and Asher Metzger and Chen Barshai and Dana Weitzner and Dafi Voloshin and Frederik Kratzert and Gal Elidan and Gideon Dror and Gregory Begelman and Grey Nearing and Guy Shalev and Hila Noga and Ira Shavitt and Liora Yuklea and Moriah Royz and Niv Giladi and Nofar Peled Levi and Ofir Reich and Oren Gilon and Ronnie Maor and Shahar Timnat and Tal Shechter and Vladimir Anisimov and Yotam Gigi and Yuval Levin and Zach Moshe and Zvika Ben-Haim and Avinatan Hassidim and Yossi Matias}
}
@article {Armon2022,
	title = {Reduced Rainfall in Future Heavy Precipitation Events Related to Contracted Rain Area Despite Increased Rain Rate},
	journal = {Earth{\textquoteright}s Future},
	volume = {10},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1{\textendash}19},
	abstract = {Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to deadly and costly natural disasters and are critical to the hydrological budget in regions where rainfall variability is high and water resources depend on individual storms. Thus, reliable projections of such events in the future are needed. To provide high-resolution projections under the RCP8.5 scenario for HPEs at the end of the 21 st century, and to understand the changes in sub-hourly to daily rainfall patterns, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulations of 41 historic HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean are compared with "pseudo global warming" simulations of the same events. This paper presents the changes in rainfall patterns in future storms, decomposed into storms{\textquoteright} mean conditional rain rate, duration, and area. A major decrease in rainfall accumulation (-30\% averaged across events) is found throughout future HPEs. This decrease results from a substantial reduction of the rain area of storms (-40\%) and occurs despite an increase in the mean conditional rain intensity (+15\%). The duration of the HPEs decreases (-9\%) in future simulations. Regionally maximal 10-min rain rates increase (+22\%), whereas over most of the region, long-duration rain rates decrease. The consistency of results across events, driven by varying synoptic conditions, suggests that these changes have low sensitivity to the specific synoptic evolution during the events. Future HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean will therefore likely be drier and more spatiotemporally concentrated, with substantial implications on hydrological outcomes of storms. Plain Language Summary Heavy precipitation events are large storms that can recharge freshwater reservoirs, but can also lead to hazardous outcomes such as flash floods. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on such storms is critical. Here, a weather model similar to those used in weather forecasts is used to simulate heavy precipitation events in the eastern Mediterranean. A large collection of storms is simulated in pairs: (1) historic storms, selected for their high impact, and (2) the same storms placed in a global warming scenario projected for the end of the 21 st century. Using these simulations we ask how present-day storms would look like were they to occur at the warmer end of the 21 st century. The future storms are found to produce much less rainfall compared to their historic counterparts. This decrease in rainfall is attributed mainly to the reduction in the area covered by storms{\textquoteright} rainfall, and happens despite increasing rainfall intensities. These results suggest that the region will be drier in the future with larger dry areas during storms; however, over short durations, it would rain more intensely over contracted areas-increasing local hazards associated with heavy precipitation events.},
	issn = {2328-4277},
	doi = {10.1029/2021ef002397},
	author = {Armon, Moshe and Marra, Francesco and Enzel, Yehouda and Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita and Garfinkel, Chaim I. and Adam, Ori and Dayan, Uri and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Elbaum2022,
	title = {Uncertainty in Projected Changes in Precipitation Minus Evaporation: Dominant Role of Dynamic Circulation Changes and Weak Role for Thermodynamic Changes},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	volume = {49},
	year = {2022},
	month = {6},
	pages = {e2022GL097725},
	publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd},
	abstract = {End of century projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models show a decrease in precipitation over subtropical oceans that often extends into surrounding land areas, but with substantial intermodel spread. Changes in precipitation are controlled by both thermodynamical and dynamical processes, though the importance of these processes for regional scales and for intermodel spread is not well understood. The contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic processes to the model spread in regional precipitation minus evaporation (P - E) is computed for 48 CMIP models. The intermodel spread is dominated essentially everywhere by the change of the dynamic term, including in most regions where thermodynamic changes drive the multi-model mean response. The dominant role of dynamic changes is insensitive to zonal averaging which removes any influence of stationary wave changes, and is also evident in subtropical oceanic regions. Relatedly, intermodel spread in P - E is generally unrelated to climate sensitivity.},
	keywords = {CMIP5/6, hydroclimate changes, subtropical drying},
	issn = {1944-8007},
	doi = {10.1029/2022GL097725},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL097725 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022GL097725 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL097725},
	author = {Eilat Elbaum and Chaim I. Garfinkel and Ori Adam and Efrat Morin and Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein and Uri Dayan}
}
@article {Neta2021,
	title = {Decision support for pest management: Using field data for optimizing temperature-dependent population dynamics models},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	volume = {440},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {109402},
	publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
	abstract = {Insect physiology is highly dependent on the environmental temperature, and the relationship can be mathematically defined. Thus, many models that aim to predict insect-pest population dynamics, use meteorological data as input to descriptive functions that predict the development rate, survival and reproduction of pest populations. In most cases, however, these functions/models are laboratory-driven and are based on data from constant-temperature experiments. Therefore, they lack an important optimization and validation steps that test their accuracy under field conditions. Here, we developed a realistic and robust regional framework for modeling the field population dynamics of the global insect pest Bemisia tabaci. First, two non-linear functions, development rate (DR) and female reproduction (EN) were fitted to data collected in constant temperature experiments. Next, nine one-generation field experiments were conducted in order to establish a field-derived database of insect performance, representing a variety of growing conditions (different seasons, regions and host plants). Then, sensitivity analyses were performed for identifying the optimal time-scale for which the running-averaged temperatures should be fed to the model. Setting the time to 6 h (i.e., each of the 24-time steps per day represents the last 6 h average) produced the best fit (RMSD score of 1.59 days, 5.7\% of the mean) between the field observations and the model simulations. We hypothesize that the 6 h {\textquoteleft}relevant biological time-scale{\textquoteright} captures the insect{\textquoteright}s physiological memory of daily cycling temperature events. Lastly, we evaluated the potential of the developed modeling framework to serve as a decision support tool in pest-management programs by correlating the model predictions with field-observations of three pest control inspectors during 2019. The model successfully predicted the first notable appearance of the insect in the field (completion of the third generation in May). Also, the model correctly identified the sharp rise in abundance (outbreak point) in mid-July (completion of the fifth generation), and the persistent rise in abundance through August and September. Comparing the simulations of the 2018 and 2019 seasons indicated that the model can also serve as a tool for retrospective systematic assessment of major decisions. Taken together, these data demonstrate the model robustness and its potential to provide an excellent decision-making support platform in regional control of pest species.},
	keywords = {Bemisia tabaci, Decision-making support tool, Field conditions, intra-annual temperature variability, invasive species, population dynamics models, reproductive performance},
	issn = {03043800},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109402},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109402},
	author = {Neta, Ayana and Gafni, Roni and Elias, Hilit and Bar-Shmuel, Nitsan and Shaltiel-Harpaz, Liora and Efrat Morin and Morin, Shai}
}
@article {Shmilovitz2021,
	title = {Frequency analysis of storm-scale soil erosion and characterization of extreme erosive events by linking the DWEPP model and a stochastic rainfall generator},
	journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
	volume = {787},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {147609},
	publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
	abstract = {Soil erosion affects agricultural landscapes worldwide, threatening food security and ecosystem viability. In arable environments, soil loss is primarily caused by short, intense rainstorms, typically characterized by high spatiotemporal variability. The complexity of erosive events challenges modeling efforts and explicit inclusion of extreme events in long-term risk assessment is missing. This study is intended to bridge this gap by quantifying the discrete and cumulative impacts of rainstorms on plot-scale soil erosion and providing storm-scale erosion risk analyses for a cropland region in northern Israel. Central to our analyses is the coupling of (1) a stochastic rainfall generator able to reproduce extremes down to 5-minute temporal resolutions; (2) a processes-based event-scale cropland erosion model (Dynamic WEPP, DWEPP); and, (3) a state-of-the-art frequency analysis method that explicitly accounts for rainstorms occurrence and properties. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which DWEPP runoff and soil loss are calibrated at the plot-scale on cropland (NSE is 0.82 and 0.79 for event runoff and sediment, respectively). We generated 300-year stochastic simulations of event runoff and sediment yield based on synthetic precipitation time series. Based on this data, the mean annual soil erosion in the study site is 0.1 kg m-2 [1.1 t ha-1]. Results of the risk analysis indicate that individual extreme rainstorms (>50 return period), characterized by high rainfall intensities (30-minute maximal intensity > $\sim$60 mm h-1) and high rainfall depth (>$\sim$200 mm), can trigger soil losses even one order of magnitude higher than the annual mean. The erosion efficiency of these rainstorms is mainly controlled by the short-duration (<=30 min) maximal intensities. The results demonstrate the importance of incorporating the impact of extreme events into soil conservation and management tools. We expect our methodology to be valuable for investigating future changes in soil erosion with changing climate.},
	keywords = {Cropland, DWEPP, Erosion risk, Extreme rainstorms, Soil erosion, Stochastic rainfall generator},
	issn = {18791026},
	doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147609},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147609},
	author = {Shmilovitz, Yuval and Marra, Francesco and Wei, Haiyan and Argaman, Eli and Nearing, Mark and Goodrich, David and Shmuel Assouline and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Dente2021,
	title = {From straight to deeply incised meandering channels: Slope impact on sinuosity of confined streams},
	journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms},
	volume = {46},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {1041{\textendash}1054},
	abstract = {Meandering channels and valleys are dominant landscape features on Earth. Their morphology and remnants potentially indicate past base-level fluctuations and changing regional slopes. The prevailing presence of meandering segments in low-slope areas somewhat confuses the physically based relationships between slope and channel meandering. This relationship underlies a fundamental debate: do incised sinuous channels actively develop during steepening of a regional slope, or do they inherit the planform of a preexisting sinuous channel through vertical incision? This question was previously explored through reconstructed evolution of meandering rivers, numerical simulations, and controlled, scaled-down laboratory experiments. Here, we study a rare, field-scale set of a dozen adjacent perennial channels, evolving in recent decades in a homogeneous erodible substrate in response to the Dead Sea level fall (> 30 m over 40 years). These channels are fed by perennial springs and have no drainage basin or previous fluvial history; they initiated straight and transformed into incising meandering channels following the emergence of the preexisting lake bathymetry, which resulted in increased channel lengths and regional slopes at different rates for each channel. This field setting allows testing the impact of changing regional slope on the sinuosity of a stream in the following cases: (a) relatively long and low-gradient shelf-like margins, (b) a sharp increase in the basinward gradient at the shelf-slope transition, and (c) gradually steepening slopes. Under a stable and low valley slope, the channels mainly incise vertically, inheriting a preexisting sinuous pattern. When the regional slope steepens, the channels start to meander, accompanying the vertical incision. The highest sinuosity evolved in the steepest channel, which also developed the deepest and widest valley. These results emphasize the amplifying impact of steepening regional slope on sinuosity. This holds when the flow is confined and chute cutoffs are scarce.},
	keywords = {base-level fall, Channel incision, Dead Sea, incised meanders, steepening slope},
	issn = {10969837},
	doi = {10.1002/esp.5085},
	author = {Dente, Elad and Lensky, Nadav G. and Efrat Morin and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {BenDor2021,
	title = {Hydroclimatic variability of opposing late Pleistocene climates in the Levant revealed by deep Dead Sea sediments},
	journal = {Climate of The Past Discussions},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {1{\textendash}31},
	keywords = {Aragonite, Authigenic, Detritus (geology), Epilimnion, Geology, Physical geography, Pleistocene, Precipitation, Sedimentary rock, Varve},
	issn = {1814-9340},
	doi = {10.5194/cp-2020-161},
	author = {Ben Dor, Yoav and Marra, Francesco and Armon, Moshe and Enzel, Yehouda and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {nhess-21-917-2021,
	title = {Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3-d flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm},
	journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {21},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {917{\textendash}939},
	keywords = {Climatology, Environmental science, Flash flood, Hydrometeorology, Natural hazard, Precipitation, Return period, Storm, Surface runoff, weather radar},
	issn = {1561-8633},
	doi = {10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021},
	url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/917/2021/},
	author = {Rinat, Yair and Marra, Francesco and Armon, Moshe and Metzger, Asher and Yoav Levi, and Pavel Khain and Elyakom Vadislavsky and Rosensaft, Marcelo and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091498,
	title = {Orographic Effect on Extreme Precipitation Statistics Peaks at Hourly Time Scales},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	volume = {48},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {e2020GL091498},
	abstract = {Abstract Orographic impact on extreme subdaily precipitation is critical for risk management but remains insufficiently understood due to complicated atmosphere-orography interactions and large uncertainties. We investigate the problem adopting a framework able to reduce uncertainties and isolate the systematic interaction of Mediterranean cyclones with a regular orographic barrier. The average decrease with elevation reported for hourly extremes is found enhanced at subhourly durations. Tail heaviness of 10-min intensities is negligibly affected by orography, suggesting self-similarity of the distributions at the convective scale. Orography decreases the tail heaviness at longer durations, with a maximum impact around hourly scales. These observations are explained by an orographically induced redistribution of precipitation toward stratiform-like processes, and by the succession of convective cores in multihour extremes. Our results imply a breaking of scale-invariance at subhourly durations, with important implications for natural hazards management in mountainous areas.},
	keywords = {Extreme precipitation, mountainous areas, orography, right tail, risk management, subhourly precipitation},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091498},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL091498},
	author = {Marra, Francesco and Armon, Moshe and Borga, Marco and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091823,
	title = {Toward Narrowing Uncertainty in Future Projections of Local Extreme Precipitation},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	volume = {48},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {e2020GL091823},
	abstract = {Abstract Projections of extreme precipitation based on modern climate models suffer from large uncertainties. Specifically, unresolved physics and natural variability limit the ability of climate models to provide actionable information on impacts and risks at the regional, watershed and city scales relevant for practical applications. Here, we show that the interaction of precipitating systems with local features can constrain the statistical description of extreme precipitation. These observational constraints can be used to project local extremes of low yearly exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year events) using synoptic-scale information from climate models, which is generally represented more accurately than the local scales, and without requiring climate models to explicitly resolve extremes. The novel approach, demonstrated here over the south-eastern Mediterranean, offers a path for improving the predictability of local statistics of extremes in a changing climate, independent of pending improvements in climate models at regional and local scales.},
	keywords = {CLIMATE CHANGE, Extreme precipitation, global climate model projection, impact studies, south-eastern Mediterranean},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091823},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL091823},
	author = {Marra, Francesco and Armon, Moshe and Adam, Ori and Zoccatelli, Davide and Gazal, Osama and Garfinkel, Chaim I and Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita and Dayan, Uri and Enzel, Yehouda and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {doi:10.1029/2020GL087367,
	title = {Determining bathymetry of shallow and ephemeral desert lakes using satellite imagery and altimetry},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	volume = {n/a},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {e2020GL087367},
	abstract = {Abstract Water volume estimates of shallow desert lakes are the basis for water balance calculations, important both for water resource management and paleohydrology/climatology. Water volumes are typically inferred from bathymetry mapping; however, being shallow, ephemeral and remote, bathymetric surveys are scarce in such lakes. We propose a new, remote-sensing based, method to derive the bathymetry of such lakes using the relation between water occurrence, during \textgreater30-yr of optical satellite data, and accurate elevation measurements from the new Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). We demonstrate our method at three locations where we map bathymetries with \~0.3 m error. This method complements other remotely sensed, bathymetry-mapping methods as it can be applied to: (a) complex lake systems with sub-basins, (b) remote lakes with no in-situ records, and (c) flooded lakes. The proposed method can be easily implemented in other shallow lakes as it builds on publically accessible global data sets.},
	keywords = {Desert hydrology, Ephemeral desert lakes, ICESat-2 altimetry, Lake bathymetry, Lake Eyre, remote sensing bathymetry},
	doi = {10.1029/2020GL087367},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL087367},
	author = {Armon, M and Dente, E and Shmilovitz, Y and Mushkin, A and Cohen, T J and Morin, E. and Enzel, Y.}
}
@article {Grodek2020,
	title = {Eco-hydrology and geomorphology of the largest floods along the hyperarid Kuiseb River, Namibia},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {582},
	year = {2020},
	month = {mar},
	pages = {124450},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {Flood-fed aquifers along the sandy lower reach of the Kuiseb River sustain a 130-km-long green belt of lush oases across the hyperarid Namib desert. This oasis is a year-round source for water creating dense-tall woodland along the narrow corridor of the ephemeral river valley, which, in turn, supports human activity and fauna including during the long dry austral winters and multi-year droughts. Occasional floods, originating at the river{\textquoteright}s wetter headwaters, travel \~280 km downstream, before recharging these aquifers. We analyzed the flood-aquifer-vegetation dynamics at-a-site and along the river, determining the relative impact of floods with diverse magnitude and frequency on downstream reaches. We find that flood discharge that feeds the alluvial aquifers also affects vegetation dynamics along the river. The downstream aquifers are fed only by the largest floods that allow the infrequent germination of plants; mean annual recharge volume is too low to support the aquifers level. These short-term vegetation cycles of green-up and then fast senescence in-between floods are easily detected by satellite-derived vegetation index. This index identifies historical floods and their magnitudes in arid and hyperarid regions; specifically, it determines occurrences of large floods in headwater-fed, ephemeral Namib streams as well as in other hyperarid regions. Our study reveals the importance of flood properties on the oasis life cycle, emphasizing the impact of drought and wet years on the Namib{\textquoteright}s riparian vegetation.},
	issn = {0022-1694},
	doi = {10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2019.124450},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419311850},
	author = {Tamir Grodek and Efrat Morin and Helman, David and Itamar Lensky and Ofer Dahan and Mary Seely and Gerardo Benito and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {Hu2020,
	title = {Evaluation of MEVD-based precipitation frequency analyses from quasi-global precipitation datasets against dense rain gauge networks},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {590},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {125564},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {Precipitation extremes and associated hydrological hazards pose a significant global risk to society and economy. To be effective, mitigation strategies require the best possible estimation of the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes. Traditional approaches to precipitation frequency analysis rely on long-term records from in-situ observations, which are limited in terms of global coverage. Satellite-based precipitation products provide global coverage, but errors in these estimates may lead to large biases in the quantification of extremes. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability of the novel Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) framework to provide robust estimates of high quantiles in the presence of short-term data records and the uncertainties typical of remote sensing precipitation products. Here, we evaluate MEVD-based precipitation frequency analyses for four widely used quasi-global precipitation products (IMERG-v6, GSMaP-v6, CMORPH-v1.0, and MSWEP-v2) over high-density gauge networks in five hydroclimatic regions (Austria, Italy, Florida, Texas, and Arizona). We show dependence of MEVD-based estimation error on the characteristics of each dataset and the hydroclimatic region. Additionally, we evaluate the sub-grid variability of extreme precipitation and demonstrate the impact of spatial scale mismatch (that is, single in-situ gauge versus satellite pixel) on the frequency analysis of extremes. This work provides an assessment of the use of MEVD for estimating precipitation extremes from globally available datasets and an understanding of the variability of sub-daily precipitation extremes in different hydroclimatic regions of the world.},
	keywords = {High-density rain gauges, Precipitation extremes, Satellite-based precipitation products, UNCERTAINTY},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125564},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125564},
	author = {Hu, Lanxin and Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I. and Marra, Francesco and Efrat Morin and Marani, Marco and Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.}
}
@article {Metzger2020,
	title = {Flood frequency estimation and uncertainty in arid/semi-arid regions},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {590},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {125254},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {At site flood frequency analysis (FFA) in arid/semi-arid watersheds poses unique challenges to researchers and practitioners due to the generally limited data records. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of FFA in arid/semi-arid watersheds in relation to the unique characteristics of these regions, such as the limited number of floods occurring each year and the large variability of the flood peak discharges. Study cases in Israel and the US are examined and compared with non-arid watersheds, characterized by Mediterranean climate, and with synthetic flood records. Results show that the tail of extreme value distributions describing arid/semi-arid watersheds is found to be heavier than the one describing Mediterranean watersheds. The number of yearly floods and the variability of flood peak discharge are shown to have a crucial impact on the accuracy of the quantile estimates with smaller number of events per year and larger coefficient of variation of flood peak discharge being related to larger errors in the estimated quantiles. Partial duration series approach provides a slightly reduced bias in the estimates, but should not be blindly preferred over annual maxima series as it presents comparable estimation uncertainty. In general, the generalized extreme value and the generalized Pareto distribution are found to be non-optimal choices for the examined arid/semi-arid watersheds.},
	keywords = {Annual maxima series, Arid/semi-arid regions, Extreme value theory, Flood frequency analysis, Parameter estimation, Partial duration series},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125254},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125254},
	author = {Metzger, Asher and Marra, Francesco and Smith, James A. and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Zoccatelli2020,
	title = {Hydrological modelling in desert areas of the eastern Mediterranean},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	year = {2020},
	month = {mar},
	pages = {124879},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {The performances of hydrological models in arid areas are significantly lower than other climates. The reasons are numerous, from the scales involved, to specific processes and the lack of adequate measurements. Effective parameters have been often observed to change between runoff events, limiting the predictive capacity of the models. We look at the problems that can be found in an operational setting and present an analysis to improve the understanding of the errors. Our method characterizes the conditions where the model fails systematically, and the conditions where the parameterization holds between floods. We applied KINEROS2 to 24 years of radar rainfall and streamflow data in 6 arid catchments. A GLUE probabilistic framework is used to characterize model performance, and a method is developed to identify floods with similar calibration. The analysis shows that uninformative conditions are difficult to generalize. A basin-specific analysis can help to identify conditions where the model fails and exclude them from calibration. Despite the large uncertainties, similar catchments display groups of floods with similar parameterization. In some basin we find that it is important to quantify antecedent moisture conditions. Hydrological models show some consistency within limited conditions. These conditions, however, depend on the errors involved, and are site-specific. There is some potential for parameter transfer, but proximity alone might not be enough, and other factors such as mean annual rainfall or storm type, should be taken into account.},
	issn = {0022-1694},
	doi = {10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2020.124879},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169420303395},
	author = {Zoccatelli, D. and Marra, F. and Smith, J. and Goodrich, D. and Unkrich, C. and Rosensaft, M. and Morin, E.}
}
@article {doi:10.1002/esp.4836,
	title = {Linking frequency of rainstorms, runoff generation and sediment transport across hyperarid talus-pediment slopes},
	journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms},
	volume = {n/a},
	year = {2020},
	abstract = {Abstract Documenting hillslope response to hydroclimatic forcing is crucial to our understanding of landscape evolution. The evolution of talus-pediment sequences (talus flatirons) in arid areas was often linked to climatic cycles, although the physical processes that may account for such a link remain obscure. Our approach is to integrate field measurements, remote sensing of rainfall and modeling to link between storm frequency, runoff, erosion and sediment transport. We present a quantitative hydrometeorological analysis of rainstorms, their geomorphic impact and their potential role in the evolution of hyperarid talus-pediment slopes in the Negev desert, Israel. Rainstorm properties were defined based on intensity{\textendash}duration{\textendash}frequency curves and using a rainfall simulator, artificial rainstorms were executed in the field. Then, the obtained measured experimental results were up-scaled to the entire slope length using a fully distributed hydrological model. In addition, natural storms and their hydro-geomorphic impacts were monitored using X-band radar and time-lapse cameras. These integrated analyses constrain the rainfall threshold for local runoff generation at rain intensity of 14 to 22 mm h-1 for a duration of five minutes and provide a high-resolution characterization of small-scale runoff-generating rain cells. The current frequency of such runoff-producing rainstorms is \~1{\textendash}3 per year. However, extending this local value into the full extent of hillslope runoff indicates that it occurs only under rainstorms with >= 100-years return interval, or 1\% annual exceedance probability. Sheetwash efficiency rises with downslope distance; beyond a threshold distance of \~100 m, runoff during rainstorms with such annual exceedance probability are capable of transporting surface clasts. The erosion efficiency of these discrete rare events highlights their potential importance in shaping the landscape of arid regions. Our results support the hypothesis that a shift in the properties and frequency of extreme events can trigger significant geomorphic transitions in areas that remained hyperarid during the entire Quaternary. {\textcopyright} 2020 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
	keywords = {convective rain cells, hillslope runoff, hydrometeorology of arid areas, sheetwash, talus-pediment slopes},
	doi = {10.1002/esp.4836},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/esp.4836},
	author = {Shmilovitz, Yuval and Efrat Morin and Rinat, Yair and Haviv, Itai and Carmi, Genadi and Mushkin, Amit and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {Armon2020,
	title = {Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {24},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {1227{\textendash}1249},
	abstract = {Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to natural hazards (e.g. floods and debris flows) and contribute to water resources. Spatiotemporal rainfall patterns govern the hydrological, geomorphological, and societal effects of HPEs. Thus, a correct characterisation and prediction of rainfall patterns is crucial for coping with these events. Information from rain gauges is generally limited due to the sparseness of the networks, especially in the presence of sharp climatic gradients. Forecasting HPEs depends on the ability of weather models to generate credible rainfall patterns. This paper characterises rainfall patterns during HPEs based on high-resolution weather radar data and evaluates the performance of a high-resolution, convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating these patterns. We identified 41 HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean from a 24-year radar record using local thresholds based on quantiles for different durations, classified these events into two synoptic systems, and ran model simulations for them. For most durations, HPEs near the coastline were characterised by the highest rain intensities; however, for short durations, the highest rain intensities were found for the inland desert. During the rainy season, the rain field{\textquoteright}s centre of mass progresses from the sea inland. Rainfall during HPEs is highly localised in both space (less than a 10\&thinsp;km decorrelation distance) and time (less than 5\&thinsp;min). WRF model simulations were accurate in generating the structure and location of the rain fields in 39 out of 41 HPEs. However, they showed a positive bias relative to the radar estimates and exhibited errors in the spatial location of the heaviest precipitation. Our results indicate that convection-permitting model outputs can provide reliable climatological analyses of heavy precipitation patterns; conversely, flood forecasting requires the use of ensemble simulations to overcome the spatial location errors.},
	issn = {16077938},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-24-1227-2020},
	author = {Armon, Moshe and Marra, Francesco and Enzel, Yehouda and Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0232.1,
	title = {The Role of Zonally Averaged Climate Change in Contributing to Intermodel Spread in CMIP5 Predicted Local Precipitation Changes},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	volume = {33},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {1141{\textendash}1154},
	abstract = {AbstractWhile CMIP5 models robustly project drying of the subtropics and more precipitation in the tropics and subpolar latitudes by the end of the century, the magnitude of these changes in precipitation varies widely across models: for example, some models simulate no drying in the eastern Mediterranean while others simulate more than a 50\% reduction in precipitation relative to the model-simulated present-day value. Furthermore, the factors leading to changes in local subtropical precipitation remain unclear. The importance of zonal-mean changes in atmospheric structure for local precipitation changes is explored in 42 CMIP5 models. It is found that up to half of the local intermodel spread over the Mediterranean, northern Mexico, East Asia, southern Africa, southern Australia, and southern South America is related to the intermodel spread in large-scale processes such as the magnitude of globally averaged surface temperature increases, Hadley cell widening, polar amplification, stabilization of the tropical upper troposphere, or changes in the polar stratosphere. Globally averaged surface temperature increases account for intermodel spread in land subtropical drying in the Southern Hemisphere but are not important for land drying adjacent to the Mediterranean. The factors associated with drying over the eastern Mediterranean and western Mediterranean differ, with stabilization of the tropical upper troposphere being a crucial factor for the former only. Differences in precipitation between the western and eastern Mediterranean are also evident on interannual time scales. In contrast, the global factors examined here are unimportant over most of the United States, and more generally over the interior of continents. Much of the rest of the spread can be explained by variations in local relative humidity, a proxy also for zonally asymmetric circulation and thermodynamic changes.},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0232.1},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0232.1},
	author = {Garfinkel, Chaim I and Adam, Ori and Efrat Morin and Enzel, Yehoudah and Elbaum, Eilat and Bartov, Maya and Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita and Dayan, Uri}
}
@article {Marra2020,
	title = {A Unified Framework for Extreme Subdaily Precipitation Frequency Analyses Based on Ordinary Events},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	volume = {47},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {1{\textendash}8},
	abstract = {The metastatistical extreme value approach proved promising in the frequency analysis of daily precipitation from ordinary events, outperforming traditional methods based on sampled extremes. However, subdaily applications are currently restrained by two knowledge gaps: It is not known if ordinary events can be consistently examined over durations, and it is not clear to what extent their entire distributions represent extremes. We propose here a unified definition of ordinary events across durations and suggest the simplified metastatistical extreme value formulation for dealing with extremes emerging from the tail, rather than the entire distributions, of ordinary events. This unified framework provides robust estimates of extreme quantiles (\textless10\% error on the 100~yr from a 26~yr long record) and allows representations in which ordinary and extreme events share the scaling exponent. Future applications could improve our knowledge of subdaily extreme precipitation and help investigate the impact of local factors and climatic forcing on their frequency.},
	keywords = {Extreme precipitation, Frequency analysis, Metastatistical extreme value, ordinary events, subdaily},
	issn = {19448007},
	doi = {10.1029/2020GL090209},
	author = {Marra, Francesco and Borga, Marco and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Zoccatelli2019,
	title = {Contrasting rainfall-runoff characteristics of floods in Desert and Mediterranean basins},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
	volume = {12},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {2665{\textendash}2678},
	abstract = {Abstract. Catchment scale hydrological studies on drylands are lacking because of the scarcity of consistent data: observations are often available at the plot scale, but their relevance for the catchment scale remains unclear. A database of 24 years of stream gauge discharge and homogeneous high-resolution radar data over the eastern Mediterranean allows to describe the properties of moderate floods over catchments spanning from Desert to Mediterranean climates. Comparing two climatic regions, Desert and Mediterranean, we are able to better identify specific rainfall-runoff properties. Despite the large differences in rainfall forcing between the two regions, the resulting unit peak discharges and runoff coefficients are comparable. In Mediterranean areas rain depth and antecedent conditions are the most important properties to shape flood response. In Deserts, instead, storm core properties display a strong correlation with unit peak discharge and, to a less extent, with runoff coefficient. In this region, an inverse correlation with mean catchment annual precipitation suggests also a strong influence of local surface properties. Preliminary analyses suggest that floods in catchments with wet headwater and dry lower section are more similar to desert catchments, with a strong influence of storm core properties on runoff generation.},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2665-2019},
	author = {Zoccatelli, Davide and Marra, Francesco and Armon, Moshe and Rinat, Yair and Smith, James A. and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Silver2019,
	title = {An evaluation of weather radar adjustment algorithms using synthetic data},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {576},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {408{\textendash}421},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {Adjustment of weather radar estimates using observed precipitation has been an accepted procedure for decades. Ground observations of precipitation typically come from rain gauges, but can also include data from diverse networks of sensors, with different levels of reliability. This study presents a standardized framework for evaluating adjustment algorithms using synthetically constructed, but realistic, rain grids and weather radar rainfall. Ground observation points are randomly placed throughout the synthetic storm domain and the precipitation for each sensor is extracted from the true rain. Then a subset of the sensors are defined as unreliable, and a log-normal error factor is applied at those locations. This double network of rain sensors could be applicable, for example, when rainfall is derived from signal attenuation between commercial microwave link (CML) antennas. Past research has tested CML observations as a source of precipitation data and validated various radar adjustment algorithms. However, a comprehensive evaluation of adjustment algorithms using accurate gauge data mixed with CML observations at different densities is lacking. Five adjustment algorithms are applied to the synthetic radar grid: Mean Field Bias (MFB), a Multiplicative algorithm, Mixed (additive and multiplicative), Conditional Merge (CondMerge) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). Generation of the synthetic framework, and application of the adjustment algorithms is repeated for 150 realizations. Comparison of coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error and linear regression for all adjustment procedures over all realizations indicates the following results. Only MFB and KED adjustments performed well when using accurate gauges. The kriging based KED was able to achieve good adjustment also with the addition of error-prone sensors. CondMerge and the Mixed and Multiplicative, however, resulted in poorer adjustments.},
	keywords = {Commercial microwave links, Gauges, rainfall, Synthetic model, weather radar},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.064},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.064},
	author = {Silver, Micha and Karnieli, Arnon and Marra, Francesco and Fredj, Erick}
}
@article {Miller2019,
	title = {Explicit wheat production model adjusted for semi-arid environments},
	journal = {Field Crops Research},
	volume = {231},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {93{\textendash}104},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {Current literature suggests that wheat production models are limited either to wide-scale or plot-based predictions ignoring pattern of habitat conditions and surficial hydrological processes. We present here a high-spatial resolution (50 m) non-calibrated GIS-based wheat production model for predictions of aboveground wheat biomass (AGB) and grain yield (GY). The model is an integration of three sub-models, each simulating elemental processes relevant for wheat growth dynamics in water-limited environments: (1) HYDRUS-1D, a finite element model that simulates one-dimensional movement of water in the soil profile; (2) a two-dimensional GIS-based surface runoff model; and (3) a one-dimensional process-driven mechanistic wheat growth model. By integrating the three sub-models, we aimed to achieve a more accurate spatially continuous water balance simulation with a better representation of root zone soil water content (SWC) impacts on plant development. High-resolution grid-based rainfall data from a meteorological radar system were used as input to HYDRUS-1D. Twenty-two commercial wheat fields in Israel were used to validate the model in two seasons (2010/11 and 2011/12). Results show that root zone SWC was accurately simulated by HYDRUS-1D in both seasons, particularly at the top 10-cm soil layer. Observed vs simulated AGB and GY were highly correlated with R2 = 0.93 and 0.72 (RMSE = 171 g m-2 and 70 g m-2) having low biases of -41 g m-2 (8\%) and 52 g m-2 (10\%), respectively. Model sensitivity test showed that HYDRUS-1D was mainly driven by spatial variability in the input soil characteristics while the integrated wheat production model was mostly affected by rainfall spatial variability indicating the importance of using accurate high-resolution rainfall data as model input. Using the integrated model, we predict decreases in AGB and GY of c. 10.5\% and c. 12\%, respectively, for 1 {\textdegree}C of warming and c. 7.7\% and c. 7.3\% for 5\% reduction in rainfall amount in our study sites. The suggested model could be used by scientists to better understand the causes of spatial and temporal variability in wheat production and the consequences of future scenarios such as climate change.},
	keywords = {CLIMATE CHANGE, GIS, Grain yield, HYDRUS, Wheat},
	issn = {03784290},
	doi = {10.1016/j.fcr.2018.11.011},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2018.11.011},
	author = {Ofir Miller and Helman, David and Tal Svoray and Efrat Morin and Bonfil, David J.}
}
@article {borga2019forensic,
	title = {Forensic analysis of flash flood response},
	journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water},
	volume = {6},
	year = {2019},
	month = {3},
	publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
	abstract = {The last decade has witnessed the development of methodologies for the post-flood documentation of both hydrogeomorphological and social response to extreme precipitation. These investigations are particularly interesting for the case of flash floods, whose space{\textendash}time scales make their observations by conventional hydrometeorological monitoring networks particularly challenging. Effective flash flood documentation requires post-flood survey strategies encompassing accurate radar estimation of rainfall, field and remote-sensing observations of the geomorphic processes, indirect reconstruction of peak discharges{\textemdash}as well eyewitness interviews. These latter can give valuable information on both flood dynamics and the related individual and collective responses. This study describes methods for post-flood surveys based on interdisciplinary collaborations between natural and social scientists. These surveys may help to better understand the links between hydrometeorological dynamics and geomorphic processes as well as the relationship between flood dynamics and behavioral response in the context of fast space{\textendash}time changes of flooding conditions. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Methods Science of Water > Hydrological Processes A flash flood and its forensic analysis.},
	issn = {2049-1948},
	doi = {10.1002/wat2.1338},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1338},
	author = {Borga, Marco and Comiti, Francesco and Ruin, Isabelle and Marra, Francesco}
}
@article {Armon2019,
	title = {Overview of modern atmospheric patterns controlling rainfall and floods into the Dead Sea: Implications for the lake{\textquoteright}s sedimentology and paleohydrology},
	journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
	volume = {216},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {58{\textendash}73},
	publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
	abstract = {The Dead Sea sedimentary fill is the basis for interpreting limnological conditions and regional paleo- hydrology. Such interpretations require an understanding of present-day hydroclimatology to reveal the relative impact of different atmospheric circulation patterns on water and sediment delivery to the Dead Sea. Here we address the most important meteorological conditions governing regional and local rain- storm occurrences, with different discharge characteristics. These meteorological controls over the Dead Sea watershed offer insights into past hydrometeorological processes that could have governed the Dead Sea water budget, seasonal and annual flows, floods, and the resultant sedimentology. Rainfall is typically associated with synoptic-scale circulation patterns forced by an upper-level trough that include Medi- terranean cyclones (MCs), active Red Sea troughs (ARSTs), and active subtropical jets (STJs), although other rainstorms and sub-synoptic processes also affect the region. We point to their relative importance in inflow volume, peak discharges, and delivery of sediments from the various environments of the basin. MCs control the annual water amount discharging into the Dead Sea. A change in their frequency, in- tensity, or latitude can substantially alter the lake water balance. A change in frequency or intensity of ARSTs and STJs affects extreme flood and sediment discharge. Floods reach the lake through (a) the Mediterranean-climate-controlled Lower Jordan River, (b) desert-climate-controlled Nahal HaArava, and (c) the arid wadies draining directly into the Dead Sea, some with wetter headwaters. Floods in the wetter parts of the watershed are mainly controlled by MCs, and characterized by larger frequency, volume, and duration, but lower peak discharges and possibly sediment delivery, than floods in the desert parts, which can be produced by the three synoptic types. ARSTs contribute to heavy rainfall, typically of a spotty nature, in the desert parts of the watershed. STJs are currently rare, but their rainfall accumulation may be greater than the annual mean over a broad area in the southern dry Dead Sea watershed. This article presents a review of recent studies, which is extended with new analyses of meteorological, rainfall and flood data, underlining the importance of the Lower Jordan River in sup- plying water volume to the Dead Sea, as compared to the high-discharge, low-volume floods of the arid part of the watershed. Our analyses will help interpret paleoenvironmental conditions in the Dead Sea sedimentary record, and cope with the region{\textquoteright}s changing climate.},
	keywords = {Dead Sea, Floods, Paleoclimatology, Present, Quaternary, rainfall, Sedimentary record, Synoptic climatology},
	issn = {02773791},
	doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.06.005},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379118308370},
	author = {Armon, Moshe and Efrat Morin and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {MCGRAW2019,
	title = {Precipitation frequency analyses based on radar estimates: An evaluation over the contiguous United States},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	year = {2019},
	abstract = {The lack of knowledge on precipitation frequency over ungauged areas introduces a significant source of uncertainty in relevant engineering designs and risk estimation procedures. Radar-based observations offer precipitation information over ungauged areas and thus have gained increasing attention as a potential solution to this problem. However, due to their relative short data records and inherent uncertainty sources, their ability to provide accurate estimates on the frequency of precipitation extremes requires evaluation. This study involves the evaluation of at-site precipitation frequency estimates from NEXRAD Stage IV radar precipitation dataset. We derive precipitation annual maxima series from the 16yrs record (2002-2017) of NEXRAD and we compare against 539 long-term (50yrs) hourly gauge records. In addition, Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are estimated from both radar and gauge dataset and compared. IDF estimation is based on fitting the Generalize Extreme Value distribution to annual precipitation maxima. Evaluation is carried out over the contiguous United States and results are grouped and presented for five dominant climate classes and for a range of return period and precipitation durations. NEXRAD was shown to overestimate intensities at shorter durations (1- and 3-hr) and low quantiles, while it tends to underestimate higher quantiles at longer durations (24hr). In addition, evaluation of the IDF curves estimated from NEXRAD revealed a distinct geographic dependence with certain regions exhibiting a tendency to overestimation (e.g. east of the Rocky Mountains) or underestimation (Midwest). Overall, this analysis suggests that, while significant discrepancies may exist, there are several cases where NEXRAD provide estimates within the uncertainty bounds of the reference rain gauge dataset. The climate/geographic region and the temporal duration are important aspects to consider. Findings provided in this work on these aspects will hopefully serve as a general guideline for those interested in using NEXRAD estimates for further research or applications on precipitation extremes.},
	keywords = {contiguous United States, intensity-duration-frequency, NEXRAD, Precipitation extremes},
	issn = {0022-1694},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.032},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419302276},
	author = {Daniel McGraw and Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I. and Marra, Francesco and Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.}
}
@article {Marra2019,
	title = {Precipitation frequency analysis from remotely sensed datasets: A focused review},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {574},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {699{\textendash}705},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {Information on extreme precipitation is essential to managing weather-related risks and designing hydraulic structures. Research attention to frequency analyses based on remotely sensed precipitation datasets, such as those obtained from weather radars and satellites, has been rapidly increasing owing to their potential to provide information for ungauged regions worldwide. Together with the ability to measure the areal scale directly, these analyses promise to overcome the sampling limitations of traditional methods based on rain gauges. This focused review of the literature depicts the state of the art after a decade of efforts, and identifies the crucial gaps in knowledge and methodology that currently hinder the quantitative use of remotely sensed datasets in water resources system design and operation. It concludes by highlighting a set of research directions promising immediate impact with regard to the separation of the sources of uncertainty currently affecting applications based on remotely sensed datasets, the development of statistical methods that can cope with the peculiar characteristics of these datasets, and the improvement of validation methods. Important gains in knowledge are expected from the explicit inclusion of the areal dimension in the analyses and from the fine-scale investigation of extreme precipitation climatology.},
	keywords = {Extreme precipitation, Frequency analysis, remote sensing, Review, Satellite, weather radar},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.081},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.081},
	author = {Marra, Francesco and Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I. and Anagnostou, Emmanouil N. and B{\'a}rdossy, Andr{\'a}s and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Marra2018,
	title = {Rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence: systematic underestimation using coarse temporal resolution data},
	journal = {Natural Hazards},
	volume = {95},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {883{\textendash}890},
	publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
	abstract = {Rainfall thresholds for landslides occurrence derived in real applications tend to be lower than the ones one would obtain using exact data. This letter shows how the use of coarse temporal resolution rainfall data causes a systematic overestimation of the duration of the triggering rainfall events that directly contributes to thresholds underestimation. A numeri- cal experiment is devised to quantify this systematic effect for the relevant case of power- law depth/intensity{\textendash}duration thresholds. In the examined conditions, i.e., the frequentist method at 5\% non-exceedance probability level, \~ 70\% underestimation of the scale param- eter and \~ 60\% overestimation of the shape parameter of the thresholds is to be expected using daily resolution rainfall data, but the exact quantification depends on the specific characteristics of each study case. The underestimation increases as the temporal resolu- tion becomes larger than the expected minimal duration of the triggering events. Under operational conditions, sensitivity analyses based on the methods and datasets of interest are advised.},
	keywords = {Early warning, Landslides, Rainfall thresholds, Syste, systematic underestimation},
	isbn = {1106901835},
	issn = {0921-030X},
	doi = {10.1007/s11069-018-3508-4},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-018-3508-4},
	author = {Marra, Francesco}
}
@article {Marra2019a,
	title = {A simplified MEV formulation to model extremes emerging from multiple nonstationary underlying processes},
	journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
	volume = {127},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {280{\textendash}290},
	publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
	abstract = {This paper presents a Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value formulation (SMEV) able to model hydro- meteorological extremes emerging from multiple underlying processes. The formulation explicitly includes the average intensity and probability of occurrence of the processes allowing to parsimoniously model changes in these quantities to quantify changes in the probability of occurrence of extremes. SMEV allows (a) frequency analyses of extremes emerging from multiple underlying processes and (b) computationally efficient analyses of the sensitivity of extreme quantiles to changes in the characteristics of the underlying processes; moreover, (c) it provides a robust framework for explanatory models, nonstationary frequency analyses, and climate projections. The methodology is applied to daily precipitation data from long recording stations in the eastern Mediter-ranean, using Weibull distributions to model daily precipitation amounts generated by two classes of synoptic systems. At-site application of SMEV provides spatially consistent estimates of extreme quantiles, in line with regional GEV estimates and generally characterized by reduced uncertainties. The sensitivity of extreme quan- tiles to changes and uncertainty in the intensity and yearly occurrences of events generated by different synoptic classes is examined, and an application of SMEV for the projection of future extremes is provided.},
	keywords = {Extreme value analysis, Metastatistical extreme val, Metastatistical extreme value, nonstationary processes},
	issn = {03091708},
	doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.04.002},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0309170818309011},
	author = {Marra, Francesco and Zoccatelli, Davide and Armon, Moshe and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Marra2018,
	title = {Autocorrelation structure of convective rainfall in semiarid-arid climate derived from high-resolution X-Band radar estimates},
	journal = {Atmospheric Research},
	volume = {200},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {126{\textendash}138},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {Small scale rainfall variability is a key factor driving runoff response in fast responding systems, such as mountainous, urban and arid catchments. In this paper, the spatial{\textendash}temporal autocorrelation structure of convective rainfall is derived with extremely high resolutions (60 m, 1 min) using estimates from an X-Band weather radar recently installed in a semiarid-arid area. The 2-dimensional spatial autocorrelation of convective rainfall fields and the temporal autocorrelation of point-wise and distributed rainfall fields are examined. The autocorrelation structures are characterized by spatial anisotropy, correlation distances \~ 1.5{\textendash}2.8 km and rarely exceeding 5 km, and time-correlation distances \~ 1.8{\textendash}6.4 min and rarely exceeding 10 min. The observed spatial variability is expected to negatively affect estimates from rain gauges and microwave links rather than satellite and C-/S-Band radars; conversely, the temporal variability is expected to negatively affect remote sensing estimates rather than rain gauges. The presented results provide quantitative information for stochastic weather generators, cloud-resolving models, dryland hydrologic and agricultural models, and multi-sensor merging techniques.},
	keywords = {Arid climate, Autocorrelation, Convective rainfall, Semiarid, X-Band weather radar},
	issn = {01698095},
	doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.09.020},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.09.020},
	author = {Marra, Francesco and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {BenDor2018,
	title = {Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates},
	journal = {Scientific Reports},
	volume = {8},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {8445},
	abstract = {Floods comprise a dominant hydroclimatic phenomenon in aridlands with significant implications for humans, infrastructure, and landscape evolution worldwide. The study of short-term hydroclimatic variability, such as floods, and its forecasting for episodes of changing climate therefore poses a dominant challenge for the scientific community, and predominantly relies on modeling. Testing the capabilities of climate models to properly describe past and forecast future short-term hydroclimatic phenomena such as floods requires verification against suitable geological archives. However, determining flood frequency during changing climate is rarely achieved, because modern and paleoflood records, especially in arid regions, are often too short or discontinuous. Thus, coeval independent climate reconstructions and paleoflood records are required to further understand the impact of climate change on flood generation. Dead Sea lake levels reflect the~mean centennial-millennial hydrological budget in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, floods in the large watersheds draining directly into the Dead Sea, are linked to short-term synoptic circulation patterns reflecting hydroclimatic variability. These two very different records are combined in this study to resolve flood frequency during opposing mean climates. Two 700-year-long, seasonally-resolved flood time series constructed from late Pleistocene Dead Sea varved sediments, coeval with significant Dead Sea lake level variations are reported. These series demonstrate that episodes of rising lake levels are characterized by higher frequency of floods, shorter intervals between years of multiple floods, and asignificantly larger number of years that experienced multiple floods. In addition, floods cluster into intervals of intense flooding, characterized by 75\% and 20\% increased frequency above their respective background frequencies during rising and falling lake-levels, respectively. Mean centennial precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean is therefore coupled with drastic changes in flood frequencies. These drastic changes in flood frequencies are linked to changes in the track, depth, and frequency of mid-latitude eastern Mediterranean cyclones, determining mean climatology resulting in wetter and drier regional climatic episodes.},
	keywords = {HYDROLOGY, Natural hazards, Palaeoclimate},
	issn = {2045-2322},
	doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-25969-6},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-25969-6},
	author = {Ben Dor, Yoav and Armon, Moshe and Ahlborn, Marieke and Efrat Morin and Erel, Yigal and Brauer, Achim and Schwab, Markus Julius and Tjallingii, Rik and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {Rinat2018,
	title = {Controls of flash flood peak discharge in Mediterranean basins and the special role of runoff-contributing areas},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {565},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {846{\textendash}860},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {During the complex dynamic interactions between rainfall and basin properties, different portions of the basin produce runoff at different moments. Capturing this spatiotemporal variability is important for flood analysis, but knowledge of this subject is limited. The presented research aims at improving the understanding of runoff-contributing areas (RCA; hillslope sections from which water flows, reaches the stream network, and consequently the basin outlet) and at examining their relationship with the magnitude of a flash flood{\textquoteright}s peak discharge. A distributed hydrological model (GB-HYDRA) that enables computing RCA and flood discharge was developed. The model was applied to four medium-size basins (18{\textendash}69 km2) in a Mediterranean climate and 59 flash flood events were analyzed. The correlation between basin input flux (basin area multiplied by the basin maximal rain intensity averaged over the time of concentration) and output flux (observed peak discharge) was poor (R2= 0.16). However, using a newly developed index, termed IRCA, to calculate the input flux accounting only for the RCA extent and rainfall intensity over it, resulted in a substantially higher correlation (R2= 0.64) across a wide range of flood magnitudes. The highest correlation was found using a 50-min time window, which is shorter than the time of concentration. Flood events were categorized according to their magnitude and the differences of several factors among the groups were examined. Pre-storm soil moisture content was found to be similar for all event magnitudes; however, pre-peak soil moisture content was substantially different between moderate and large{\textendash}extreme events. Other important properties that differed between magnitudes were: RCA extent and its averaged rain intensity and ratio of convective rainfall. Finally, areas with land-uses characterized by low runoff potential became dominant and contributed mainly during large and extreme events. Although the RCA and its extent full potential is yet to be fulfilled, it is proposed as a significant tool for understanding processes of flash flood generation at the basin scale in future research.},
	keywords = {Flash flood, Grid-based hydrological model, Mediterranean climate, Peak discharge control, Radar rainfall, Runoff-contributing area},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.055},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.055},
	author = {Rinat, Yair and Marra, Francesco and Zoccatelli, Davide and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Ahlborn2018,
	title = {Increased frequency of torrential rainstorms during a regional late Holocene eastern Mediterranean drought},
	journal = {Quaternary Research},
	volume = {89},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {425{\textendash}431},
	abstract = {Identifying climates favoring extreme weather phenomena is a primary aim of paleoclimate and paleohydrological research. Here, we present a well-dated, late Holocene Dead Sea sediment record of debris flows covering 3.3 to 1.9 cal ka BP. Twenty-three graded layers deposited in shallow waters near the western Dead Sea shore were identified by microfacies analysis. These layers represent distal subaquatic deposits of debris flows triggered by torrential rainstorms over the adjacent western Dead Sea escarpment. Modern debris flows on this escarpment are induced by rare rainstorms with intensities exceeding \textgreater30mm h-1 for at least one hour and originate primarily from the Active Red Sea Trough synoptic pattern. The observed late Holocene clustering of such debris flows during a regional drought indicates an increased influence of Active Red Sea Troughs resulting from a shift in synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns. This shift likely decreased the passages of eastern Mediterranean cyclones, leading to drier conditions, but favored rainstorms triggered by the Active Red Sea Trough. This is in accord with present-day meteorological data showing an increased frequency of torrential rainstorms in regions of drier climate. Hence, this study provides conclusive evidence for a shift in synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns during a late Holocene drought.},
	doi = {10.1017/qua.2018.9},
	author = {Ahlborn, Marieke and Armon, Moshe and Ben Dor, Yoav and Neugebauer, Ina and Schwab, Markus J. and Tjallingii, Rik and Shoqeir, Jawad Hasan and Efrat Morin and Enzel, Yehouda and Brauer, Achim}
}
@article {Amponsah2018,
	title = {Integrated high-resolution dataset of high-intensity European and Mediterranean flash floods},
	journal = {Earth System Science Data},
	volume = {10},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {1783{\textendash}1794},
	abstract = {Abstract. This paper describes an integrated, high-resolution dataset of hydro-meteorological variables (rainfall and discharge) concerning a number of high-intensity flash floods that occurred in Europe and in the Mediterranean region from 1991 to 2015. This type of dataset is rare in the scientific literature because flash floods are typically poorly observed hydrological extremes. Valuable features of the dataset (hereinafter referred to as the EuroMedeFF database) include (i) its coverage of varied hydro-climatic regions, ranging from Continental Europe through the Mediterranean to Arid climates, (ii) the high space{\textendash}time resolution radar rainfall estimates, and (iii) the dense spatial sampling of the flood response, by observed hydrographs and/or flood peak estimates from post-flood surveys. Flash floods included in the database are selected based on the limited upstream catchment areas (up to 3000km2), the limited storm durations (up to 2 days), and the unit peak flood magnitude. The EuroMedeFF database comprises 49 events that occurred in France, Israel, Italy, Romania, Germany and Slovenia, and constitutes a sample of rainfall and flood discharge extremes in different climates. The dataset may be of help to hydrologists as well as other scientific communities because it offers benchmark data for the identification and analysis of the hydro-meteorological causative processes, evaluation of flash flood hydrological models and for hydro-meteorological forecast systems. The dataset also provides a template for the analysis of the space{\textendash}time variability of flash flood triggering rainfall fields and of the effects of their estimation on the flood response modelling. The dataset is made available to the public with the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.6096/MISTRALS-HyMeX.1493.},
	issn = {18663516},
	doi = {10.5194/essd-10-1783-2018},
	url = {https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/1783/2018/essd-10-1783-2018.html},
	author = {Amponsah, William and Ayral, Pierre Alain and Boudevillain, Brice and Bouvier, Christophe and Braud, Isabelle and Brunet, Pascal and Delrieu, Guy and DIdon-Lescot, Jean Fran\c cois and Gaume, Eric and Lebouc, Laurent and Marchi, Lorenzo and Marra, Francesco and Efrat Morin and Nord, Guillaume and Payrastre, Olivier and Zoccatelli, Davide and Borga, Marco}
}
@article {Peleg2018,
	title = {Intensification of convective rain cells at warmer temperatures observed from high-resolution weather radar data},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {JHM{\textendash}D{\textendash}17{\textendash}0158.1},
	abstract = {AbstractThis study contributes to the understanding of the relationship between air temperature and convection by analyzing the characteristics of rainfall at the storm and convective rain cell scales. High spatial-temporal resolution (1-km, 5-min) estimates from a uniquely long weather radar record (24-year) were coupled with near-surface air temperature over Mediterranean and semiarid regions in the eastern Mediterranean. In the examined temperature range (5 to 25{\textdegree}C), the peak intensity of individual convective rain cells was found to increase with temperature, but at lower rate than the 7\%{\textdegree}C-1 scaling expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, while the area of the individual convective rain cells slightly decrease or, at most, remains unchanged. At the storm-scale, the areal convective rainfall was found to increase with warmer temperatures, whereas the areal non-convective rainfall and the storm-wide area decrease. This suggests an enhanced moisture convergence from the storm-wide extent towards the convective rain cells. Results indicate a reduction in the total rainfall amounts and an increased heterogeneity of the spatial structure of the storm rainfall for temperatures increasing up to 25{\textdegree}C. Thermodynamic conditions, analyzed using convective available potential energy, were determined to be similar between Mediterranean and semiarid regions. Limitation in the atmospheric moisture availability when shifting from Mediterranean to semiarid climates was detected and explains the suppression of the intensity of the convective rain cells when moving towards drier regions. The relationships obtained in this study are relevant for nearby regions characterized by Mediterranean and semiarid climates.},
	issn = {1525-755X},
	doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-17-0158.1},
	url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0158.1},
	author = {Peleg, Nadav and Marra, Francesco and Fatichi, Simone and Molnar, Peter and Efrat Morin and Sharma, Ashish and Burlando, Paolo}
}
@article {Morin2018,
	title = {Mean, variance and trends of Levant precipitation over the past 4500 years from reconstructed Dead Sea lake levels and stochastic modeling},
	journal = {Quaternary Research; In-press},
	year = {2018},
	abstract = {A novel quantitative assessment of late Holocene precipitation in the Levant is presented, including mean and variance of annual precipitation and their trends. A stochastic framework was utilized and allowed, possibly for the first time, linking high-quality, reconstructed rises/declines in Dead Sea levels with precipitation trends in its watershed. We determined the change in mean annual precipitation for 12 specific intervals over the past 4500 yr, concluding that: (1) the twentieth century was substantially wetter than most of the late Holocene; (2) a representative reference value of mean annual precipitation is 75\% of the present-day parameter; (3) during the late Holocene, mean annual precipitation ranged between -17 and +66\% of the reference value (-37 to +25\% of present-day conditions); (4) the driest intervals were 1500{\textendash}1200 BC and AD 755{\textendash}890, and the wettest intervals were 2500{\textendash}2460 BC, 130{\textendash}40 BC, AD 350{\textendash}490, and AD 1770{\textendash}1940; (5) lake-level rises and declines probably occurred in response to trends in precipitation means and are less likely to occur when precipitation mean is constant; (6) average trends in mean annual precipitation during intervals of >=200 yr did not exceed 15mm per decade. The precipitation trends probably reflect shifts in eastern Mediterranean cyclone tracks.},
	doi = {10.1017/qua.2018.98},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/quaternary-research/article/mean-variance-and-trends-of-levant-precipitation-over-the-past-4500-years-from-reconstructed-dead-sea-levels-and-stochastic-modeling/88A2B2B5F98FFAA9F4F5ACF18B06B413},
	author = {Morin, E. and Ryb, T. and Gavrieli, I. and Enzel, Y.}
}
@article {Quade2018,
	title = {Megalakes in the Sahara ? A Review},
	journal = {Quaternary Research},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {1{\textendash}23},
	abstract = {The Sahara was wetter and greener during multiple interglacial periods of the Quaternary, when some have suggested it featured very large (mega) lakes, ranging in surface area from 30,000 to 350,000km2. In this paper, we review the physical and biological evidence for these large lakes, especially during the African Humid Period (AHP) 11{\textendash}5 ka. Megalake systems from around the world provide a checklist of diagnostic features, such as multiple well-defined shore- line benches, wave-rounded beach gravels where coarse material is present, landscape smoothing by lacustrine sediment, large-scale deltaic deposits, and in places, tufas encrusting shorelines. Our survey reveals no clear evidence of these fea- tures in the Sahara, except in the Chad basin. Hydrologic modeling of the proposed megalakes requires mean annual rain- fall >=1.2 m/yr and a northward displacement of tropical rainfall belts by >=1000 km. Such a profound displacement is not supported by other paleo-climate proxies and comprehensive climate models, challenging the existence of megalakes in the Sahara. Rather than megalakes, isolated wetlands and small lakes are more consistent with the Sahelo-Sudanian paleoenvironment that prevailed in the Sahara during the AHP. A pale-green and discontinuously wet Sahara is the like- lier context for human migrations out of Africa during the late Quaternary.},
	keywords = {lake chad, Lake Victoria, megalakes, paleohydrology, paleolakes, paleowetlands, sahara},
	issn = {0033-5894},
	doi = {10.1017/qua.2018.46},
	author = {Quade, J and Dente, E and Armon, M and Dor, Y Ben and Morin, E. and Adam, O and Enzel, Y.}
}
@article {Marra2018,
	title = {Metastatistical Extreme Value analysis of hourly rainfall from short records: Estimation of high quantiles and impact of measurement errors},
	journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
	volume = {117},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {27{\textendash}39},
	publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
	abstract = {This study expands the Metastatistical Extreme Value (MEV) framework to sub-daily rainfall frequency analysis and compares it to extreme value theory methods in presence of short records and measurement errors. Ordinary events are identified based on the temporal autocorrelation of hourly data and modeled with a Weibull distribution. MEV is compared to extreme value theory methods in the estimation of long return period quantiles from actual data (160 rain gauges with at least 60-year record in the contiguous United States) and on synthetic data perturbed with measurement errors typical of remote sensing rainfall estimation. MEV tends to underestimate the 100-year return period quantiles of hourly rainfall when 5{\textendash}20 years of actual data are used, but presents diminished uncertainty. When a good model of the ordinary events and adequate number of events per year are available, MEV is able to provide information on the 100-year return period quantiles from 10{\textendash}20, or even 5 years of data with significantly reduced uncertainty (\textless30\% uncertainty for 5-year records). MEV estimates of 100-year return period quantiles from short records are much less sensitive than extreme value theory methods to additive/multiplicative errors, presence of cap values in the estimates, and missing of extreme values. Results from this study strongly support the use of MEV for rainfall frequency analyses based on remotely sensed datasets.},
	keywords = {Dependence on data record and measurement errors, Long return period quantile estimation uncertainty, Metastatistical extreme value, Short records, Sub-daily rainfall frequency},
	issn = {03091708},
	doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.05.001},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.05.001},
	author = {Marra, Francesco and Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I. and Anagnostou, Emmanouil N. and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Dente2018,
	title = {Sinuosity evolution along an incising channel: New insights from the Jordan River response to the Dead Sea level fall},
	journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms},
	year = {2018},
	abstract = {channel, increasing sinuosity. Upstream, near the migrating knickzone channel gradients also increase, incision is more moderate and floods continue to overtop the banks, favoring meander chute cutoffs. The resulting channel has a downstream well-confined meandering segment and an upstream low-sinuosity segment. These new insights regarding spatial differences along an incising channel can improve interpretations of the evolution of ancient planforms and floodplains that responded to base-level decline.},
	issn = {01979337},
	doi = {10.1002/esp.4530},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/esp.4530},
	author = {Dente, Elad and Lensky, Nadav G. and Efrat Morin and Dunne, Thomas and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {Armon2018,
	title = {Synoptic-scale control over modern rainfall and flood patterns in the Levant drylands with implications for past climates},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
	volume = {19},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {1077{\textendash}1096},
	abstract = {Rainfall in the Levant drylands is scarce, but can potentially generate high-magnitude flash floods. Rainstorms are caused by distinct synoptic-scale circulation patterns: Mediterranean cyclone (MC), active Red Sea trough (ARST) and subtropical jet stream (STJ) disturbances, also termed tropical plumes (TPs). The unique spatiotemporal characteristics of rainstorms and floods for each circulation pattern were identified. Meteorological reanalyses, quantitative precipitation estimates from weather radars, hydrological data, and indicators of geomorphic changes from remote-sensing imagery were used to characterize the chain of hydrometeorological processes leading to distinct flood patterns in the region.Significant differences in the hydrometeorology of these three flood-producing synoptic systems were identified: MC storms draw moisture from the Mediterranean and generate moderate rainfall in the northern part of the region. ARST and TP storms transfer large amounts of moisture from the south, which is converted to rainfall in the hyperarid southernmost parts of the Levant. ARST rainfall is local and intense, whereas TP rainfall is widespread and prolonged due to high precipitation efficiency and large-scale forcing. Thus, TP rainfall generates high-magnitude floods in the largest catchments; integration of numerous basins leads to sediment feeding from the south into the Dead Sea, exhibited in large sediment plumes. Anecdotal observations of the channel with the largest catchment in the region (Nahal HaArava) indicate that TP floods account for noticeable geomorphic changes in the channel. It provides insights into past intervals of increased flash flood frequency characterized by episodes of marked hydrogeomorphic work; such an increase is especially expected during intervals of southerly situated and southwesterly oriented STJs.},
	issn = {1525-755X},
	doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-18-0013.1},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0013.1},
	author = {Armon, Moshe and Dente, Elad and Smith, James A. and Enzel, Yehouda and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Belachsen2017,
	title = {Convective rainfall in dry climate: relations with synoptic systems and flash-flood generation in the Dead Sea region},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Abstracts EGU General Assembly},
	year = {2017},
	abstract = {Space-time patterns of rainfall are important climatic characteristics that influence runoff generation and flash flood magnitude. Their derivation requires high-resolution measurements to adequately represent the rainfall distribution, and is best provided by remote sensing tools. This need is further emphasized in dry climate regions, where rainfall is scarce and, often, local and highly variable. Our research is focused on understanding the nature of rainfall events in the dry Dead Sea region (Eastern Mediterranean) by identifying and characterizing the spatial structure and the dynamics of convective storm cores (known as rain cells). To do so, we take advantage of 25 years of corrected and gauge-adjusted weather radar data. A statistical analysis of convective rain-cells spatial and temporal characteristics was performed with respect to synoptic pattern, geographical location, and flash flood generation. Rain cells were extracted from radar data using a cell segmentation method and a tracking algorithm and were divided into rain events. A total of 10,500 rain cells, 2650 cell tracks and 424 rain events were elicited. Rain cell properties, such as mean areal and maximal rain intensity, area, life span, direction and speed, were derived. Rain events were clustered, according to several ERA-Interim atmospheric parameters, and associated with three main synoptic patterns: Cyprus Low, Low to the East of the study region and Active Red Sea Trough. The first two originate from the Mediterranean Sea, while the third is an extension of the African monsoon. On average, the convective rain cells in the region are 90 km 2 in size, moving from West to East in 13 ms -1 and living 18 minutes. Several significant differences between rain cells of the various synoptic types were observed. In particular, Active Red Sea Trough rain cells are characterized by higher rain intensities and lower speeds, suggesting a higher flooding potential for small catchments. The north-south negative gradient of mean annual rainfall in the study region was found to be negatively correlated with rain cells intensity and positively correlated with rain cells area. Additional analysis was done for convective rain cells over two nearby catchments located in the central part of the study region, by ascribing some of the rain events to observed flash-flood events. It was found that rain events associated with flash-floods have higher maximal rain cell intensity and lower minimal cell speed than rain events that did not lead to a flash-flood in the watersheds. This information contributes to our understanding of rain patterns over the dry area of the Dead Sea and their connection to flash-floods. The statistical distributions of rain cells properties can be used for high space-time resolution stochastic simulations of rain storms that can serve as an input to hydrological models.},
	issn = {1812-2116},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-2017-235},
	url = {http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2017/EGU2017-413.pdf},
	author = {Belachsen, Idit and Marra, Francesco and Peleg, Nadav and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {doi:10.1175/JHM-D-17-0089.1,
	title = {Flash Flooding in Arid/Semiarid Regions: Dissecting the Hydrometeorology and Hydrology of the 19 August 2014 Storm and Flood Hydroclimatology in Arizona},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
	volume = {18},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {3103{\textendash}3123},
	abstract = {The hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of flash floods in the arid/semiarid southwestern United States are examined through empirical analyses of long-term, high-resolution rainfall and stream gauging observations, together with hydrological modeling analyses of the 19 August 2014 storm based on the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion Model (KINEROS2). The analyses presented here are centered on identifying the structure and evolution of flood-producing storms, as well as the interactions of space{\textendash}time rainfall variability and basin characteristics in determining the upper-tail properties of rainfall and flood magnitudes over this region. This study focuses on four watersheds in Maricopa County, Arizona, with contrasting geomorphological properties. Flash floods over central Arizona are concentrated in both time and space, reflecting controls of the North American monsoon and complex terrain. Thunderstorm systems during the North American monsoon, as represented by the 19 August 2014 storm, are the dominant flood agents that determine the upper tail of flood frequency over central Arizona and that also shape the envelope curve of floods for watersheds smaller than 250 km2. Flood response for the 19 August 2014 storm is associated with storm elements of comparable spatial extent to the drainage area and slow movement for the three compact, headwater watersheds. Flood response for the elongated and relatively flat Skunk Creek highlights the importance of the spatial distribution of rainfall for transmission losses in arid/semiarid watersheds.},
	isbn = {8610829952},
	issn = {1525-755X},
	doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-17-0089.1},
	url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0089.1},
	author = {Yang, Long and Smith, James and Baeck, Mary Lynn and Efrat Morin and Goodrich, David C.}
}
@article {Dente2017,
	title = {Geomorphic Response of a Low-Gradient Channel to Modern, Progressive Base-Level Lowering: Nahal HaArava, the Dead Sea},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface},
	volume = {122},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {2468{\textendash}2487},
	abstract = {The geomorphic response of channels to base-level fall is an important factor in landscape evolution. To better understand the complex interactions between the factors controlling channel evolution in an emerging continental shelf setting, we use an extensive data set (high-resolution digital elevation models, aerial photographs, and Landsat imagery) of a newly incising, perennial segment of Nahal (Wadi) HaArava, Israel. This channel responds to the rapid and progressive lowering of its base-level, the Dead Sea ( \textgreater 30 m in \~35 years; \~0.5-1.3 m yr -1 ). Progressively evolving longitudinal profiles, channel width, sinuosity, and knickpoint retreat during the last few decades were documented or reconstructed. The results indicate that even under fast base-level fall, rapid delta progradation on top of the shelf and shelf edge can moderate channel mouth slopes and, therefore, largely inhibit channel incision and knickpoint propagation. This channel elongation stage ends when the delta reaches an extended accommodation within the receiving basin and fails to keep the channel mouth slopes as low as the channel bed slopes. Then, processes of incision, narrowing, and meandering begin to shape the channel and expand upstream. When the down-cutting channel encounters a more resistant stratum within the channel substrate, these processes are restricted to a downstream reach by formation of a retreating vertical knickpoint. When the knickpoint and the channel incise to a level below this stratum, a spatially continuous, diffusion-like evolution characterizes the channel{\textquoteright}s response and source-to-sink transport can be implemented. These results emphasize the mouth slope and channel substrate resistance as the governing factors over long-term channel evolution, whereas flash floods have only local and short-lived impacts in a confined, continuously incising channel. The documented channel response applies to eustatic base-level fall under steepening basin bathymetry, rapid delta progradation, and lithologic variations in the channel substrate.},
	keywords = {Base-level lowering, Channel evolution stages, Continental shelf, Delta-channel inter-relations, Mouth slope, Spatiotemporal analysis},
	issn = {21699011},
	doi = {10.1002/2016JF004081},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016JF004081},
	author = {Dente, Elad and Lensky, Nadav G. and Efrat Morin and Tamir Grodek and Sheffer, Nathan A. and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {hess-21-2389-2017,
	title = {Intensity-duration-frequency curves from remote sensing rainfall estimates: comparing satellite and weather radar over the eastern Mediterranean},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {21},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {2389{\textendash}2404},
	abstract = {Intensity{\textendash}duration{\textendash}frequency (IDF) curves are widely used to quantify the probability of occurrence of rainfall extremes. The usual rain gauge-based approach provides accurate curves for a specific location, but uncertainties arise when ungauged regions are examined or catchment-scale information is required. Remote sensing rainfall records, e.g. from weather radars and satellites, are recently becoming available, providing high-resolution estimates at regional or even global scales; their uncertainty and implications on water resources applications urge to be investigated. This study compares IDF curves from radar and satellite (CMORPH) estimates over the eastern Mediterranean (covering Mediterranean, semiarid, and arid climates) and quantifies the uncertainty related to their limited record on varying climates. We show that radar identifies thicker-tailed distributions than satellite, in particular for short durations, and that the tail of the distributions depends on the spatial and temporal aggregation scales. The spatial correlation between radar IDF and satellite IDF is as high as 0.7 for 2{\textendash}5-year return period and decreases with longer return periods, especially for short durations. The uncertainty related to the use of short records is important when the record length is comparable to the return period ( \~ 50, \~ 100, and \~ 150 \% for Mediterranean, semiarid, and arid climates, respectively). The agreement between IDF curves derived from different sensors on Mediterranean and, to a good extent, semiarid climates, demonstrates the potential of remote sensing datasets and instils confidence on their quantitative use for ungauged areas of the Earth.},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-21-2389-2017},
	url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/2389/2017/},
	author = {Marra, F. and Morin, E. and Peleg, N. and Mei, Y. and Anagnostou, E. N.}
}
@article {Oriani2017,
	title = {Simulating Small-Scale Rainfall Fields Conditioned by Weather State and Elevation: A Data-Driven Approach Based on Rainfall Radar Images},
	journal = {Water Resources Research},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {8512{\textendash}8532},
	abstract = {The quantification of spatial rainfall is critical for distributed hydrological modeling. Rainfall spatial patterns generated by similar weather conditions can be extremely diverse. This variability can have a significant impact on hydrological processes. Stochastic simulation allows generating multiple realizations of spatial rainfall or filling missing data. The simulated data can then be used as input for numerical models to study the uncertainty on hydrological forecasts. In this paper, we use the direct sampling technique to generate stochastic simulations of high-resolution (1 km) daily rainfall fields, conditioned by elevation and weather state. The technique associates historical radar estimates to variables describing the daily weather conditions, such as the rainfall type and mean intensity, and selects radar images accordingly to form a con- ditional training image set of each day. Rainfall fields are then generated by resampling pixels from these images. The simulation at each location is conditioned by neighbor patterns of rainfall amount and eleva- tion. The technique is tested on the simulation of daily rainfall amount for the eastern Mediterranean. The results show that it can generate realistic rainfall fields for different weather types, preserving the temporal weather pattern, the spatial features, and the complex relation with elevation. The concept of conditional training image provides added value to multiple-point simulation techniques dealing with extremely non- stationary heterogeneities and extensive data sets.},
	keywords = {elevation, multiple-point, radar, rainfall, simulation, stochastic},
	issn = {00431397},
	doi = {10.1002/2017WR020876},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017WR020876},
	author = {Oriani, Fabio and Ohana-Levi, Noa and Marra, Francesco and Straubhaar, Julien and Mariethoz, Gregoire and Renard, Philippe and Karnieli, Arnon and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Ziv2016,
	title = {Can severe rain events over the Mediterranean region be detected through simple numerical indices?},
	journal = {Natural Hazards},
	volume = {83},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {1197{\textendash}1212},
	publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
	abstract = {This work evaluates two numerical warning indicators of severe weather. These indicators, the MKI and RDI indices, were developed within the framework of the EU- funded FLASH project which studies flash flood events in the Mediterranean Basin. The MKI (Modified K-Index) is a modification of the K-Index, which expresses probability of lightning activity, and the RDI (Rain Dynamical Index) is the integrated upward moisture flux. The indices were tested on 59 episodes which occurred during nine rainstorms in Israel, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Cyprus. The data for calculation of the indices included rain cell identification derived from microwave radiometer imagery of polar orbiting NOAA satellites, rain RADAR data, and lightning activity from the international ZEUS detection system. Atmospheric data with 0.5? 9 0.5? spatial resolution and 6-h time res- olution were used for the calculation and the display of the two indices. The indices were tested by calculating the spatially correlating locations with high index values and actual locations of intense rain and intense lightning. The RDI detected both event types: rain and lightning, with a statistically significant success rate and a low rate of false results. The MKI was successful in indicating intense lightning activity, but the rate of correct indi- cations was not statistically significant and there was a high rate of false indications. The results suggest that the RDI computed with output of weather prediction models is a potentially good predictor of torrential rain and therefore can predict flash floods caused by such rain in the Mediterranean region.},
	keywords = {activity {\'a} thermodynamic and, climate {\'a} extreme weather, dynamic indices {\'a}, Dynamic rain index, Extreme weather, Flash flood, flash flood {\'a} lightning, Lightning activity, Mediterranean climate, Modified K-Index, modified k-index {\'a} dynamic, rain index {\'a} mediterranean, Thermodynamic and dynamic indices},
	issn = {0921-030X},
	doi = {10.1007/s11069-016-2385-y},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-016-2385-y},
	author = {Ziv, B. and Harats, N. and Morin, E. and Yair, Y. and Dayan, U.}
}
@article {Kottmeier2016,
	title = {New perspectives on interdisciplinary earth science at the Dead Sea: The DESERVE project},
	journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
	volume = {544},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {1045{\textendash}1058},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {The Dead Sea region has faced substantial environmental challenges in recent decades, including water resource scarcity, \~ 1 m annual decreases in the water level, sinkhole development, ascending-brine freshwater pollution, and seismic disturbance risks. Natural processes are significantly affected by human interference as well as by climate change and tectonic developments over the long term. To get a deep understanding of processes and their interactions, innovative scientific approaches that integrate disciplinary research and education are required. The research project DESERVE (Helmholtz Virtual Institute Dead Sea Research Venue) addresses these challenges in an interdisciplinary approach that includes geophysics, hydrology, and meteorology. The project is implemented by a consortium of scientific institutions in neighboring countries of the Dead Sea (Israel, Jordan, Palestine Territories) and participating German Helmholtz Centres (KIT, GFZ, UFZ). A new monitoring network of meteorological, hydrological, and seismic/geodynamic stations has been established, and extensive field research and numerical simulations have been undertaken. For the first time, innovative measurement and modeling techniques have been applied to the extreme conditions of the Dead Sea and its surroundings. The preliminary results show the potential of these methods. First time ever performed eddy covariance measurements give insight into the governing factors of Dead Sea evaporation. High-resolution bathymetric investigations reveal a strong correlation between submarine springs and neo-tectonic patterns. Based on detailed studies of stratigraphy and borehole information, the extension of the subsurface drainage basin of the Dead Sea is now reliably estimated. Originality has been achieved in monitoring flash floods in an arid basin at its outlet and simultaneously in tributaries, supplemented by spatio-temporal rainfall data. Low-altitude, high resolution photogrammetry, allied to satellite image analysis and to geophysical surveys (e.g. shear-wave reflections) has enabled a more detailed characterization of sinkhole morphology and temporal development and the possible subsurface controls thereon. All the above listed efforts and scientific results take place with the interdisciplinary education of young scientists. They are invited to attend joint thematic workshops and winter schools as well as to participate in field experiments},
	keywords = {CLIMATE, Education, flash floods, Seismicity, Sinkholes, Water balance},
	issn = {00489697},
	doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.003},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969715311608},
	author = {Kottmeier, Christoph and Agnon, Amotz and Al-Halbouni, Djamil and Alpert, Pinhas and Corsmeier, Ulrich and Dahm, Torsten and Eshel, Adam and Geyer, Stefan and Haas, Michael and Holohan, Eoghan and Kalthoff, Norbert and Kishcha, Pavel and Krawczyk, Charlotte and Lati, Joseph and Laronne, Jonathan B. and Lott, Friederike and Mallast, Ulf and Merz, Ralf and Metzger, Jutta and Mohsen, Ayman and Efrat Morin and Nied, Manuela and R{\"o}diger, Tino and Salameh, Elias and Sawarieh, Ali and Shannak, Benbella and Siebert, Christian and Weber, Michael}
}
@article {zidon2015projecting,
	title = {Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	volume = {26},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {1198-1210},
	publisher = {Eco Soc America},
	abstract = {\&nbsp;The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40{\textdegree} during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.\&nbsp;},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/15-1045/abstract},
	author = {Zidon, Royi and Tsueda, Hirotsugu and Efrat Morin and Morin, Shai}
}
@article {Drobinski2016,
	title = {Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios},
	journal = {Climate Dynamics},
	year = {2016},
	month = {mar},
	abstract = {In this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979{\textendash}2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the change in precipitation extremes with respect to temperature is robust and consistent. The spatial variability of the temperature{\textendash}precipitation extremes relationship displays a hook shape across the Mediterranean, with negative slope at high temperatures and a slope following Clausius{\textendash}Clapeyron (CC)-scaling at low temperatures. The temperature at which the slope of the temperature{\textendash}precipitation extreme relation sharply changes (or temperature break), ranges from about 20~\$\backslash$textdegree\C in the western Mediterranean to \textless10~\$\backslash$textdegree\C in Greece. In addition, this slope is always negative in the arid regions of the Mediterranean. The scaling of the simulated precipitation extremes is insensitive to ocean{\textendash}atmosphere coupling, while it depends very weakly on the resolution at high temperatures for short precipitation accumulation times. In future climate scenario simulations covering the 2070{\textendash}2100 period, the temperature break shifts to higher temperatures by a value which is on average the mean regional temperature change due to global warming. The slope of the simulated future temperature{\textendash}precipitation extremes relationship is close to CC-scaling at temperatures below the temperature break, while at high temperatures, the negative slope is close, but somewhat flatter or steeper, than in the current climate depending on the model. Overall, models predict more intense precipitation extremes in the future. Adjusting the temperature{\textendash}precipitation extremes relationship in the present climate using the CC law and the temperature shift in the future allows the recovery of the temperature{\textendash}precipitation extremes relationship in the future climate. This implies negligible regional changes of relative humidity in the future despite the large warming and drying over the Mediterranean. This suggests that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of moisture which counteracts the drying and warming impacts on relative humidity in parts of the Mediterranean region.},
	issn = {1432-0894},
	doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3083-x},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3083-x},
	author = {Drobinski, Philippe and Da Silva, Nicolas and Panthou, G{\'e}r{\'e}my and Bastin, Sophie and Muller, Caroline and Ahrens, Bodo and Borga, Marco and Conte, Dario and Fosser, Giorgia and Giorgi, Filippo and G{\"u}ttler, Ivan and Kotroni, Vassiliki and Li, Laurent and Efrat Morin and {\"O}nol, Bari$\backslash$cs and Quintana-Segui, Pere and Romera, Raquel and Torma, Csaba Zsolt}
}
@article {Peleg2015,
	title = {A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: A case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {19},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {567{\textendash}581},
	abstract = {A modeling framework is formulated and applied to assess the sensitivity of the hydrological regime of two catchments in a convective rainfall environment with respect to projected climate change. The study uses likely rainfall scenarios with high spatiotemporal resolution that are dependent on projected changes in the driving regional meteorological synoptic systems. The framework was applied to a case study in two medium-sized Mediterranean catchments in Israel, affected by convective rainfall, by combining the HiReS-WG rainfall generator and the SAC-SMA hydrological model. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime was examined for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, comparing the historical (beginning of the 21st century) and future (mid-21st-century) periods from three general circulation model simulations available from CMIP5. Focusing on changes in the occurrence frequency of regional synoptic systems and their impact on rainfall and streamflow patterns, we find that the mean annual rainfall over the catchments is projected to be reduced by 15\% (outer range 2{\textendash}23\%) and 18\% (7{\textendash}25\%) for the RCP4.5 sand RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. The mean annual streamflow volumes are projected to be reduced by 45\% (10{\textendash}60\%) and 47\% (16{\textendash}66\%). The average events{\textquoteright} streamflow volumes for a given event rainfall depth are projected to be lower by a factor of 1.4{\textendash}2.1. Moreover, the streamflow season in these ephemeral streams is projected to be shorter by 22\% and 26{\textendash}28\% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The amplification in reduction of streamflow volumes relative to rainfall amounts is related to the projected reduction in soil moisture, as a result of fewer rainfall events and longer dry spells between rainfall events during the wet season. The dominant factors for the projected reduction in rainfall amount were the reduction in occurrence of wet synoptic systems and the shortening of the wet synoptic systems durations. Changes in the occurrence frequency of the two dominant types of the regional wet synoptic systems (active Red Sea trough and Mediterranean low) were found to have a minor impact on the total rainfall.},
	issn = {16077938},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-19-567-2015},
	url = {http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/567/2015/hess-19-567-2015.html},
	author = {Peleg, N. and Shamir, E. and Georgakakos, K. P. and Morin, E.}
}
@article {Seo2015,
	title = {Hydrologic applications of weather radar},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {531},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {231{\textendash}233},
	issn = {0022-1694},
	doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.010},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169415008847},
	author = {Seo, Dong-Jun and Habib, Emad and Andrieu, Herv{\'e} and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Marra2015,
	title = {Use of radar QPE for the derivation of Intensity{\textendash}Duration{\textendash}Frequency curves in a range of climatic regimes},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {531},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {427{\textendash}440},
	abstract = {Intensity{\textendash}Duration{\textendash}Frequency (IDF) curves are widely used in flood risk management because they provide an easy link between the characteristics of a rainfall event and the probability of its occurrence. Weather radars provide distributed rainfall estimates with high spatial and temporal resolutions and overcome the scarce representativeness of point-based rainfall for regions characterized by large gradients in rainfall climatology. This work explores the use of radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for the identification of IDF curves over a region with steep climatic transitions (Israel) using a unique radar data record (23yr) and combined physical and empirical adjustment of the radar data. IDF relationships were derived by fitting a generalized extreme value distribution to the annual maximum series for durations of 20min, 1h and 4h. Arid, semi-arid and Mediterranean climates were explored using 14 study cases. IDF curves derived from the study rain gauges were compared to those derived from radar and from nearby rain gauges characterized by similar climatology, taking into account the uncertainty linked with the fitting technique. Radar annual maxima and IDF curves were generally overestimated but in 70\% of the cases (60\% for a 100yr return period), they lay within the rain gauge IDF confidence intervals. Overestimation tended to increase with return period, and this effect was enhanced in arid climates. This was mainly associated with radar estimation uncertainty, even if other effects, such as rain gauge temporal resolution, cannot be neglected. Climatological classification remained meaningful for the analysis of rainfall extremes and radar was able to discern climatology from rainfall frequency analysis.},
	keywords = {Arid climate, Climatology, Intensity{\textendash}Duration{\textendash}Frequency curves, ISRAEL, Mediterranean climate, Radar rainfall estimation},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.08.064},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169415006794},
	author = {Marra, Francesco and Efrat Morin}
}
@inbook {Borga2014,
	title = {Characteristics of Flash Flood Regimes in the Mediterranean Region},
	booktitle = {Storminess and Environmental Change Climate Forcing and Responses in the Mediterranean Region},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {65{\textendash}76},
	publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
	organization = {Springer Netherlands},
	chapter = {5},
	address = {Dordrecht},
	abstract = {This work analyses the prominent characteristics of extreme storms and flash-flood regimes in two main areas of the Mediterranean region: the North-Western (comprising Spain, France and Italy) and South-Eastern region (Israel). The two areas are chosen to represent the two end members of variation in flash-flood regimes in the Mediterranean basin. Data from 99 events collected in the two areas (69 from the North-Western region and 30 from the South-Eastern region), for which occurrence date, catchment area and flood peak are available, were used to provide a detailed description the flash-flood seasonality patterns, the synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric controls, and flood envelope relationship. Results show that the flood envelope curve for the South-Eastern region exhibits a more pronounced decreasing with catchment size with respect to the curve of the North-Western region. The differences between the two relationships reflect variations in the fractional storm coverage of the basin and hydrological characteristics between the two regions. Seasonality analysis shows that the events in the North-Western region tend to occur between August and November, whereas those in the South-Eastern area tend to occur in the period between October and May, reflecting the relevant patterns in the synoptic conditions controlling the generation of intense precipitation events.},
	isbn = {978-94-007-7948-8},
	doi = {10.1007/978-94-007-7948-8_5},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7948-8\_5},
	author = {Borga, Marco and Efrat Morin},
	editor = {Diodato, Nazzareno and Bellocchi, Gianni}
}
@article {Peleg2014a,
	title = {CMIP5-predicted climate shifts over the East Mediterranean: Implications for the transition region between Mediterranean and semi-arid climates},
	journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
	volume = {2153},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {2144{\textendash}2153},
	abstract = {The effect of climate change on the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region, a region that reflects a transition between Mediterranean and semi-arid climates, was examined. This transition region is affected by global changes such as the expansion of the Hadley cell, which leads to a poleward shift of the subtropical dry zone. The Hadley cell expansion forces the migration of jet streams and storm tracks poleward from their standard course, potentially increasing regional desertification. This article focuses on the northern coastline of Israel along the EM region where most wet synoptic systems (i.e. systems that may lead to precipitation) are generated. The current climate was compared to the predicted mid-21st century climate based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. A warming of 1.1{\textendash}2.6 {\textdegree}C was predicted for this region. The models predicted that rain in the region will become less frequent, with a reduction of 1.2{\textendash}3.4\% in 6-h intervals classified as wet synoptic systems and a 10{\textendash}22\% reduction in wet events. They further predicted that the maximum wet event duration in the mid-21st century would become shorter relative to the current climate, implying that extremely long wet systems will become less frequent. Three of the models predicted shrinking of the wet season length by up to 15\%. All models predicted an increasing occurrence frequency of Active Red Sea Troughs (ARSTs) for the RCP8.5 scenario by up to 11\% by the mid-21st century. For the RCP4.5 scenario, a similar increase of up to 6\% was predicted by two of the models.},
	keywords = {CLIMATE CHANGE, cyprus low, Desertification, east mediterranean, hadley cell, ISRAEL, red sea trough, synoptic classification},
	issn = {08998418},
	doi = {10.1002/joc.4114},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4114/full},
	author = {Peleg, Nadav and Bartov, Maya and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Rinat2014,
	title = {Holocene rockfalls in the southern Negev Desert, Israel and their relation to Dead Sea fault earthquakes},
	journal = {Quaternary Research (United States)},
	volume = {81},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {260{\textendash}273},
	publisher = {University of Washington},
	abstract = {Rockfall ages in tectonically active regions provide information regarding frequency and magnitude of earthquakes. In the hyper-arid environment of the Dead Sea fault (DSF), southern Israel, rockfalls are most probably triggered by earthquakes. We dated rockfalls along the western margin of the DSF using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCN). At each rockfall site, samples were collected from simultaneously exposed conjugate boulders and cliff surfaces. Such conjugate samples initially had identical pre-fall ("inherited") TCN concentrations. After boulder detachment, these surfaces were dosed by different production rates due to differences in post-fall shielding and geometry. However, in our study area, pre-rockfall inheritance and post-rockfall production rates of TCN cannot be evaluated. Therefore, we developed a numerical approach and demonstrated a way to overcome the above-mentioned problems. This approach can be applied in other settings where rockfalls cannot be dated by simple exposure dating. Results suggest rockfall ages between 3.6. {\textpm}. 0.8 and 4.7. {\textpm}. 0.7. ka. OSL ages of sediment accumulated behind the boulders range between 0.6. {\textpm}. 0.1 and 3.4. {\textpm}. 1.4. ka and support the TCN results. Our ages agree with dated earthquakes determined in paleoseismic studies along the entire length of the DSF and support the observation of intensive earthquake activity around 4-5. ka. {\textcopyright} 2013 University of Washington.},
	keywords = {cosmogenic nuclides, Dead sea fault earthquakes, Exposure age dating, Rockfalls},
	isbn = {0033-5894},
	issn = {10960287},
	doi = {10.1016/j.yqres.2013.12.008},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2013.12.008},
	author = {Rinat, Yair and Matmon, Ari and Arnold, Maurice and Auma{\^{\i}tre, Georges and Bourl{\`e}s, Didier and Keddadouche, Karim and Porat, Naomi and Efrat Morin and Finkel, Robert C.}
}
@booklet {Shamir2014,
	title = {Hydrologic Model Development for the Dalia-Taninim watersheds in Israel},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {46},
	publisher = {Hydrologic Research Center},
	address = {San Diego},
	url = {http://www.hydrometeorology-lab.huji.ac.il/images/stories/Reports/HRCTN66.pdf},
	author = {Shamir, Eylon and Georgakakos, Konstantine P. and Peleg, Nadav and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Morin2014,
	title = {Hydrological impact and potential flooding of convective rain cells in a semi-arid environment},
	journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
	volume = {59},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {1353{\textendash}1362},
	abstract = {Abstractt Spatio-temporal storm properties have a large impact on catchment hydrological response. The sensitivity of simulated flash floods to convective rain-cell characteristics is examined for an extreme storm event over a 94 km2 semi-arid catchment in southern Israel. High space{\textendash}time resolution weather radar data were used to derive and model convective rain cells that then served as input into a hydrological model. Based on alterations of location, direction and speed of a major rain cell, identified as the flooding cell for this case, the impacts on catchment rainfall and generated flood were examined. Global sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the most important factors affecting the flash flood peak discharge at the catchment outlet. We found that the flood peak discharge could be increased three-fold by relatively small changes in rain-cell characteristics. We assessed that the maximum flash flood magnitude that this single rain cell can produce is 175 m3/s, and, taking into account the...},
	keywords = {caract{\'e}ristiques spatio-temporelles de la pluie, cellules convectives de pluie, climat semi-aride, convective rain cells, crues {\'e}clair, flash floods, radar m{\'e}t{\'e}orologique, semi-arid climate, space{\textendash}time rain characteristics, weather radar},
	issn = {0262-6667},
	doi = {10.1080/02626667.2013.841315},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626667.2013.841315\#.Vcs\_DPmqpBc},
	author = {Morin, E. and Yakir, H.}
}
@article {Saaroni2014,
	title = {Prolonged dry spells in the Levant region: Climatologic-synoptic analysis},
	journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
	volume = {2236},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {2223{\textendash}2236},
	abstract = {Prolonged dry spells (PDSs) during the rainy season have severe environmental implications, including water shortage, damage to agriculture and increased potential for forest fires. This holds in particular for vulnerable regions, such as the Levant, already subjected to decrease in rainfall and lengthening of dry spells, in agreement with predictions of climatic models for the coming decades. This is the first comprehensive study which identifies atmospheric patterns responsible for PDS occurrence on thousands of kilometres scale. A total of 178 PDSs, of \textgreater7 days, were found within the 62 seasons studied. A subjective inspection of upper-level geopotential height (GPH), sea-level pressure (SLP) and lower-level temperature anomalies point at three types, each associated with a definite climatic regime. The {\textquoteleft}subtropical{\textquoteright} type is associated with an expansion of the subtropical high over the majority of the Mediterranean, accompanied by northward migration of the Mediterranean cyclone track. The {\textquoteleft}baroclinic{\textquoteright}, the most frequent type, is induced by a pronounced stagnant ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, being a part of Rossby wave, accompanied by a pronounced trough/cut-off low over the western Mediterranean. The {\textquoteleft}polar{\textquoteright} type results from intrusion of lower-level continental polar air associated with upper-level trough east of the Levant and blocking high over central Europe. Quantitative indices were derived for objective classification of the types, based on the climatic regimes defined subjectively, and the centers of action representing each. Composite maps for each type indicate substantial differences in the synoptic configuration and the factors explaining absence of rain. For the subtropical type, the dynamic factor of subsidence is dominant. For the polar, the thermodynamic factor of continental dry advection is dominant and for the baroclinic, both dynamic and thermodynamic factors are important. Classification of PDSs according to synoptic scenarios enables analysis of future changes in the occurrence and duration pattern of PDSs, using output of climate models.},
	keywords = {Blocking, Levant, Polar intrusion, Prolonged dry spells, Rossby wave, Subtropics},
	issn = {10970088},
	doi = {10.1002/joc.4143},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4143/full},
	author = {Saaroni, Hadas and Ziv, Baruch and Lempert, Judith and Gazit, Yael and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Peleg2014,
	title = {Stochastic convective rain-field simulation using a high-resolution synoptically conditioned weather generator (HiReS-WG)},
	journal = {Water Resources Research},
	volume = {50},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {2124{\textendash}2139},
	abstract = {A new stochastic high-resolution synoptically conditioned weather generator (HiReS-WG) appropriate for climate regimes with a substantial proportion of convective rainfall is presented. The simu- lated rain fields are of high spatial (0.53 0.5 km2) and temporal (5 min) resolution and can be used for most hydrological applications. The WG is composed of four modules: the synoptic generator, the motion vector generator, the convective rain cell generator, and the low-intensity rainfall generator. The HiReS-WG was applied to a study region on the northwestern Israeli coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean, for which 12 year weather radar and synoptic data were extensively analyzed to derive probability distributions of con- vective rain cells and other rainfall properties for different synoptic classifications; these distributions were used as input to the HiReS-WG. Simulated rainfall data for 300 years were evaluated for annual rain depth, season timing, wet-/dry-period durations, rain-intensity distributions, and spatial correlations. In general, the WG well represented the above properties compared to radar and rain-gauge observations from the studied region, with one limitation{\textemdash}an inability to reproduce the most extreme cases. The HiReS-WG is a good tool to study catchments{\textquoteright} hydrological responses to variations in rainfall, especially small-size to medium-size catchments, and it can also be linked to climate models to force the prevailing synoptic conditions.},
	doi = {10.1002/2013WR014836},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013WR014836/full},
	author = {Peleg, Nadav and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Shamir2013,
	title = {Geomorphology-based index for detecting minimal flood stages in arid alluvial streams},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {17},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {1021{\textendash}1034},
	abstract = {Identification of a geomorphic index to represent lower thresholds for minor flows in ephemeral, alluvial streams in arid environments is an essential step in reliable flash flood hazard estimations and establishing flood warning systems. An index, termed Alluvial wadi Flood Incipient Geomorphologic Index (AFIG), is presented. Analysis of data from an extensive field survey in the arid ephemeral streams in southern and eastern Israel was conducted to investigate the AFIG and the control over its value across the region. During the survey we identified distinguishable flow marks in the lower parts of streams{\textquoteright} banks, such as niches, vegetation line, and change in bank material, which are indicative of low flows. The cross-sectional characteristics of the AFIG were studied in relationship with contributing drainage basin characteristics such as lithology, topography, and precipitation. Drainage area and hardness of the exposed lithology (presented as a basin-wide index) are the preferred descriptors to be used in estimating a specific AFIG in un-surveyed sites. Analyses of discharge records from seven hydrometric stations indicate that the recurrence interval of the determined AFIG is equal to or more frequent than 0.5 year.},
	issn = {1607-7938},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-17-1021-2013},
	url = {http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1021/2013/},
	author = {Shamir, E. and Ben-Moshe, L. and Ronen, a. and Grodek, T. and Enzel, Y. and Georgakakos, K. P. and Morin, E.}
}
@article {Karran2013,
	title = {Multi-step streamflow forecasting using data-driven non-linear methods in contrasting climate regimes},
	journal = {Journal of Hydroinformatics},
	volume = {16},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {1{\textendash}19},
	abstract = {Considering the popularity of using data-driven non-linear methods for forecasting streamflow, there has been no exploration of how well such models perform in climate regimes with differing hydrological characteristics, nor has the performance of these models, coupled with wavelet transforms, been compared for lead times of less than one month. This study compares the use of four different models, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR), wavelet-ANN, and wavelet-SVR in a Mediterranean, Oceanic, and Hemiboreal watershed. Model performance was tested for one, two and three day forecasting lead times, measured by fractional standard error, the coefficient of determination, Nash{\textendash}Sutcliffe model efficiency, multiplicative bias, probability of detection and false alarm rate. SVR based models performed best overall, but no one model outperformed the others in more than one watershed, suggesting that some models may be more suitable for certain types of data. Overall model performance varied greatly between climate regimes, suggesting that higher persistence and slower hydrological processes (i.e. snowmelt, glacial runoff, and subsurface flow) support reliable forecasting using daily and multi-day lead times.},
	keywords = {artificial neural networks, climate regime, Forecasting, streamflow, support vector regression, times series analysis},
	issn = {1464-7141},
	doi = {10.2166/hydro.2013.042},
	url = {http://www.iwaponline.com/jh/up/jh2013042.htm},
	author = {Karran, DJ and Efrat Morin and Adamowski, Jan}
}
@article {Peleg2013,
	title = {Radar subpixel-scale rainfall variability and uncertainty: Lessons learned from observations of a dense rain-gauge network},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {17},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {2195{\textendash}2208},
	abstract = {Runoff and flash flood generation are very sensitive to rainfall{\textquoteright}s$\backslash$nspatial and temporal variability. The increasing use of radar and$\backslash$nsatellite data in hydrological applications, due to the sparse$\backslash$ndistribution of rain gauges over most catchments worldwide, requires$\backslash$nfurthering our knowledge of the uncertainties of these data. In 2011, a$\backslash$nnew super-dense network of rain gauges containing 14 stations, each with$\backslash$ntwo side-by-side gauges, was installed within a 4 km(2) study area near$\backslash$nKibbutz Galed in northern Israel. This network was established for a$\backslash$ndetailed exploration of the uncertainties and errors regarding rainfall$\backslash$nvariability within a common pixel size of data obtained from remote$\backslash$nsensing systems for timescales of 1 min to daily. In this paper, we$\backslash$npresent the analysis of the first year{\textquoteright}s record collected from this$\backslash$nnetwork and from the Shacham weather radar, located 63 km from the study$\backslash$narea. The gauge-rainfall spatial correlation and uncertainty were$\backslash$nexamined along with the estimated radar error. The nugget parameter of$\backslash$nthe inter-gauge rainfall correlations was high (0.92 on the 1 min scale)$\backslash$nand increased as the timescale increased. The variance reduction factor$\backslash$n(VRF), representing the uncertainty from averaging a number of rain$\backslash$nstations per pixel, ranged from 1.6\% for the 1 min timescale to 0.07\%$\backslash$nfor the daily scale. It was also found that at least three rain stations$\backslash$nare needed to adequately represent the rainfall (VRF\textless 5 \%) on a typical$\backslash$nradar pixel scale. The difference between radar and rain gauge rainfall$\backslash$nwas mainly attributed to radar estimation errors, while the gauge$\backslash$nsampling error contributed up to 20\% to the total difference. The ratio$\backslash$nof radar rainfall to gauge-areal-averaged rainfall, expressed by the$\backslash$nerror distribution scatter parameter, decreased from 5.27 dB for 3 min$\backslash$ntimescale to 3.21 dB for the daily scale. The analysis of the radar$\backslash$nerrors and uncertainties suggest that a temporal scale of at least 10$\backslash$nmin should be used for hydrological applications of the radar data.$\backslash$nRainfall measurements collected with this dense rain gauge network will$\backslash$nbe used for further examination of small-scale rainfall{\textquoteright}s spatial and$\backslash$ntemporal variability in the coming years.},
	issn = {10275606},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-17-2195-2013},
	url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nadav\_Peleg/publication/237836316\_Radar\_subpixel-scale\_rainfall\_variability\_and\_uncertainty\_Lessons\_learned\_from\_observations\_of\_a\_dense\_rain-gauge\_network/links/00b7d51bc30de7f9c6000000.pdf},
	author = {Peleg, N. and Ben-Asher, M. and Morin, E.}
}
@article {Gabella2013,
	title = {Winter precipitation fields in the Southeastern Mediterranean area as seen by the Ku-band spaceborne weather radar and two C-band ground-based radars},
	journal = {Atmospheric Research},
	volume = {119},
	year = {2013},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {120{\textendash}130},
	publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
	abstract = {The spaceborne weather radar onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite can be used to adjust Ground-based Radar (GR) echoes, as a function of the range from the GR site. The adjustment is based on the average linear radar reflectivity in circular rings around the GR site, for both the GR and attenuation-corrected NearSurfZ TRMM Precipitation Radar (TPR) images. In previous studies, it was found that in winter, for the lowest elevation of the Cyprus C-band radar, the GR/TPR equivalent rain rate ratio was decreasing, on average, of approximately 8 dB per decade. In this paper, the same analysis has been applied to another C-band radar in the southeastern Mediterranean area. For the lowest elevation of the {\textquotedblleft}Shacham{\textquotedblright} radar in Israel, the GR/TPR equivalent rain rate ratio is found to decrease of approximately 6 dB per decade. The average departure at the {\textquotedblleft}reference{\textquotedblright}, intermediate range is related to the calibration of the GR. The negative slope of the range dependence is considered to be mainly caused by an overshooting problem (increasing sampling volume of the GR with range combined with non-homogeneous beam filling and, on average, a decreasing vertical profile of radar reflectivity). To check this hypothesis, we have compared the same NearSurfZ TPR images versus GR data acquired using the second elevation. We expected these data to be affected more by overshooting, especially at distant ranges: the negative slope of the range dependence was in fact found to be more evident than in the case of the lowest GR elevation for both the Cypriot and Israeli radar.},
	keywords = {Cyprus, ISRAEL, Precipitation Radar, Range-adjustment, TRMM, weather radar},
	issn = {01698095},
	doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.06.001},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809511001797},
	author = {Gabella, M. and Morin, E. and Notarpietro, R. and Michaelides, S.}
}
@article {Tarolli2012,
	title = {Analysis of flash flood regimes in the North-Western and South-Eastern Mediterranean regions},
	journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},
	volume = {12},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {1255{\textendash}1265},
	abstract = {ak data, catchment area and occurrence date for 99 events (69 from the North-Western region and 30 from the South-Eastern region). Analysis is carried out in terms of relationship of flood peaks with catchment area and sea- sonality. Results show that the envelope curve for the South- Eastern region exhibits a more pronounced decreasing with catchment size with respect to the curve of the North-Western region. The differences between the two relationships reflect changes in the effects of storm coverage and hydrological characteristics between the two regions. Seasonality analy- sis shows that the events in the North-Western region tend to occur between August and November, whereas those in the South-Eastern area tend to occur in the period between October and May, reflecting the relevant patterns in the syn- optic conditions leading to the intense precipitation events. In the second part, the focus is on the rainfall-runoff rela- tionships for 13 selected major flash flood events (8 from the North-Western area and 5 from the South-Eastern area) for which rainfall and runoff properties are available. These flash floods are characterised in terms of climatic features of the impacted catchments, duration and amount of the gener- ating rainfall, and runoff ratio. Results show that the rainfall duration is shorter and the rainfall depth lower in the South- Eastern region. The runoff ratios are rather low in both re- gions, whereas they are more variable in the South-Eastern area. No clear relationship between runoff ratio and rainfall depth is observed in the sample of floods, showing the major influence of rainfall intensity and the initial wetness condi- tion in the runoff generation for these events.},
	issn = {1684-9981},
	doi = {10.5194/nhess-12-1255-2012},
	url = {http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1255/2012/},
	author = {Tarolli, P. and Borga, M. and Morin, E. and Delrieu, G}
}
@article {Flaounas2012,
	title = {Assessment of gridded observations used for climate model validation in the Mediterranean region: the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX framework},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	volume = {7},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {024017},
	abstract = {This letter assesses the quality of temperature and rainfall daily retrievals of the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA\&D) with respect to measurements collected locally in various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region in the framework of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX), endorsed by the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). The ECA\&D, among other gridded datasets, is very often used as a reference for model calibration and evaluation. This is for instance the case in the context of the WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and its Mediterranean declination MED-CORDEX. This letter quantifies ECA\&D dataset uncertainties associated with temperature and precipitation intra-seasonal variability, seasonal distribution and extremes. Our motivation is to help the interpretation of the results when validating or calibrating downscaling models by the ECA\&D dataset in the context of regional climate research in the Euro-Mediterranean region.},
	issn = {1748-9326},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024017},
	url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024017/meta},
	author = {Flaounas, Emmanouil and Drobinski, Philippe and Borga, Marco and Calvet, Jean-Christophe and Delrieu, Guy and Efrat Morin and Tartari, Gianni and Toffolon, Roberta}
}
@article {Peleg2012,
	title = {Convective rain cells: Radar-derived spatiotemporal characteristics and synoptic patterns over the eastern Mediterranean},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
	volume = {117},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {1{\textendash}17},
	abstract = {This paper examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of convective rain cells over the eastern Mediterranean (northern Israel) and their relationship to synoptic patterns. Information on rain cell features was extracted from high-resolution weather radar data. The radar-gauge adjustment, validation, cell segmentation and tracking techniques are discussed at length at the beginning of the paper. Convective rain cells were clustered into three synoptic types (two winter lows{\textemdash}deep Cyprus lows and shallow lows{\textemdash}and one tropical intrusion, Active Red Sea Trough) using several NCEP/NCAR parameters, and empirical distributions were computed for their spatial and temporal features. In the study region, it was found that the Active Red Sea Trough rain cells are larger, live for less time and possess lower rain intensities than the rain cells generated by the winter lows. The Cyprus low rain cells were found to be less intense and slightly larger on average than the shallow low rain cells. It was further discovered that the preferential orientation of the rain cells is associated with the direction and velocity of the wind. The effect of distance from the coastline was also examined. An increase in the number and area of the rain cells near the coastline was observed, presumably due to the sea breeze convection. The mean rainfall intensity was found to peak near the shore and decrease with distance inland. This information is of great importance for understanding rain patterns and can be further applied in exploring the hydrological responses of the basins in this region},
	keywords = {convective rain cell, Mediterranean climate, rainfall, spatial and temporal model, synoptic pattern, weather radar},
	issn = {01480227},
	doi = {10.1029/2011JD017353},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD017353/full},
	author = {Peleg, Nadav and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Grodek2012,
	title = {Effectiveness of exceptional rainstorms on a small Mediterranean basin},
	journal = {Geomorphology},
	volume = {159-160},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {156{\textendash}168},
	publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
	abstract = {A comprehensive investigation of rainstorms and their consequent impacts on landscape evolution is geomorphologically important, but only scant information may be available on exceptional events, because parameters on synoptic conditions, rainstorm, landforms and hydrology for such events may be incomparable with previous knowledge. We studied an exceptional storm on April 2, 2006, in the Ramot Menashe region, Israel. Our investigation of rainfall, landslides, debris flows and channel suggests the effectiveness of such an event on the development of basin-scale morphology. The storm caused damage and casualties although it covered relatively narrow strips. Neither direct rainfall nor runoff measurements exist for the most severely affected area of Ramot Menashe, but the geomorphologic evidence combined with high-resolution meteorological radar data provides the basic understanding of the processes and hazardous conditions which prevailed at the time. In the storm core, based on estimation from meteorological radar data, 263mm of rain fell within 3h with a maximum intensity of 220mmh -1 for 10min, triggering both sporadic landslides at the soil/bedrock contact on the upper slopes and widespread landslides at the fractured/massive bedrock contact on the lower slopes. The 1st order channels on the alternation of chalk and marl also underwent erosion, and the produced sediment deposited on alluvial fans at the confluence with the main channel. The specific peak discharges for catchment size of 0.3-10km 2 were 11 to 73m 3s -1km -2, higher than any recorded floods in the Mediterranean climatic region of Israel. The effectiveness of the flood for geomorphic work, represented by shear stress and stream power per unit boundary area reached 87-398Nm -2 and 212-2134Wm -2, respectively. This kind of analysis can be applied to hazard prediction in other areas under similar geomorphological conditions. ?? 2012 Elsevier B.V.},
	keywords = {Channel incision, Debris flows, Exceptional rainstorm, Factor of safety, Geomorphic processes, Landslides},
	isbn = {0169-555X},
	issn = {0169555X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.03.016},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.03.016},
	author = {Tamir Grodek and Jacoby, Yael and Efrat Morin and Katz, Oded}
}
@article {Morin2012,
	title = {The flooding potential of convective rain cells},
	journal = {IAHS Publ.},
	volume = {351},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {607{\textendash}613},
	abstract = {Flash floods caused by convective rain storms are highly sensitive to the space{\textendash}time character- istics of rain cells. In this study we exploit the high space{\textendash}time resolution of the radar data to study the characteristics of the rain cells and their impact on flash flood magnitudes. A rain cell model is applied to the radar data of an actual storm and the rain fields represented by the model further serve as input into a hydrological model. Global sensitivity analysis is applied to identify the most important factors affecting the flash flood peak discharge. As a case study we tested an extreme storm event over a semi-arid catchment in southern Israel. The rain cell model was found to simulate the rain storm adequately. We found that relatively small changes in the rain cell{\textquoteright}s location, speed and direction could cause a three-fold increase in flash flood peak discharge at the catchment outlet.},
	keywords = {convective rain cells, flash floods, weather radar},
	isbn = {9781907161261},
	issn = {01447815},
	url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Efrat\_Morin/publication/234649147\_The\_flooding\_potential\_of\_convective\_rain\_cells/links/00b7d53637621761e9000000.pdf},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Yakir, Hagit}
}
@article {Peleg2012a,
	title = {Rainfall, spring discharge and past human occupancy in the Eastern Mediterranean},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	volume = {112},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {769{\textendash}789},
	abstract = {In ancient times human activities were tightly related and sensitive to rainfall amounts and seasonal distribution. East Mediterranean settlements were concentrated around numerous small to large springs, such as the Judean Mountains area. The goals of this study were to determine (a) the sensitivity of total discharge, recession curve, and response time of such springs to annual precipitation patterns, and (b) how spring hydrology responds to series of drought or wet years and to transitions from drought to normal and/or wet episodes (and vice versa). These goals were achieved by setting a finite-element hydro-geological flow model for selected perched springs that characterize the numerous springs throughout the carbonate karst terrain in the Judean Mountains. In addition, we estimated the effect of proposed regional past climate changes on the springs; in so doing, we transfer climate change to community size, livelihood and economic strength that were highly dependent on agricultural productivity. The results of the hydro-geological model revealed that these mountainous communities had the potential to prosper during historically wetter episodes and were probably adapted to short-term variability in annual rainfall. However, moderate to extreme droughts lasting only a few years could have led to a partial or even total abandonment of the springs as focal sites of intensive agricultural production. Spring drying eliminated the primary cause for the location of settlement. This occurred simultaneously in numerous settlements around the mountains of the southern Levant and therefore, must have caused dramatic economic and societal changes in the entire region, perhaps even resonating afar.},
	isbn = {0165-0009},
	issn = {01650009},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0232-4},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0232-4},
	author = {Peleg, Nadav and Efrat Morin and Gvirtzman, Haim and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {Price2011a,
	title = {The FLASH Project : using lightning data to better understand and predict flash floods},
	journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy},
	volume = {14},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {898{\textendash}911},
	abstract = {The FLASH project was implemented from 2006 to 2010 under the EU FP6 framework. The project focused on using lightning observations to better understand and predict convective storms that result in flash floods. As part of the project 23 case studies of flash floods in the Mediterranean region were examined. For the analysis of these storms lightning data from the ZEUS network were used together with satellite derived rainfall estimates in order to understand the storm development and electrification. In addition, these case studies were simulated using mesoscale meteorological models to better understand the meteorological and synoptic conditions leading up to these intense storms. As part of this project tools for short term predictions (nowcasts) of intense convection across the Mediterranean and Europe, and long term forecasts (a few days) of the likelihood of intense convection were developed. The project also focused on educational outreach through our website http:// flashproject.org supplying real time lightning observations, real time experimental now- casts, forecasts and educational materials. While flash floods and intense thunderstorms cannot be prevented as the climate changes, long-range regional lightning networks can supply valuable data, in real time, for warning end-users and stakeholders of imminent intense rainfall and possible flash floods.},
	issn = {14629011},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2011.03.004},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901111000360},
	author = {Price, C. and Yair, Y. and Mugnai, A. and Lagouvardos, K. and Llasat, M. C. and Michaelides, S. and Dayan, U. and Dietrich, S. and Galanti, E. and Garrote, L. and Harats, N. and Katsanos, D. and Kohn, M. and Kotroni, V. and Llasat-Botija, M. and Lynn, B. and Mediero, L. and Morin, E. and Nicolaides, K.}
}
@article {Yakir2011,
	title = {Hydrologic response of a semi-arid watershed to spatial and temporal characteristics of convective rain cells},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {15},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {393{\textendash}404},
	abstract = {Antibodies directed to citrullinated proteins (anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide) are highly specific for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Recent data suggest that the antibodies may be involved in the disease process of RA and that several RA-associated genetic factors might be functionally linked to RA via modulation of the production of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies or citrullinated antigens.},
	isbn = {1607-7938},
	issn = {10275606},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-15-393-2011},
	url = {http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/393/2011/hess-15-393-2011.html},
	author = {Yakir, H. and Morin, E.}
}
@article {Sheffer2011,
	title = {Integrated cave drip monitoring for epikarst recharge estimation in a dry Mediterranean area, Sif Cave, Israel},
	journal = {Hydrological Processes},
	volume = {25},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {2837{\textendash}2845},
	abstract = {Abstract Understanding recharge mechanisms and controls in karst regions is extremely important for managing water resources because of the dynamic nature of the system. The objective of this study was to evaluate water percolation through epikarst by monitoring water flow into a cave and conducting artificial irrigation and tracer experiments, at Sif Cave in Wadi Sussi, Israel from 2005 through 2007. The research is based on continuous high-resolution direct measurements of both rainfall and water percolation in the cave chamber collected by three large PVC sheets which integrate drips from three different areas (17, 46, and 52 m2). Barrels equipped with pressure transducers record drip rate and volume for each of the three areas. The combined measured rainfall and cave data enables estimation of recharge into the epikarst and to better understand the relationship of rainfall-recharge. Three distinct types of flow regimes were identified: (1) {\textquoteleft}Quick flow{\textquoteright} through preferential flow paths (large fractures and conduits); (2) {\textquoteleft}Intermediate flow{\textquoteright} through a secondary crack system; and (3) {\textquoteleft}Slow flow{\textquoteright} through the matrix. A threshold of \~100 mm of rain at the beginning of the rainy season is required to increase soil water content allowing later rainfall events to percolate deeper through the soil and to initiate dripping in the cave. During winter, as the soil water content rises, the lag time between a rain event and cave drip response decreases. Annual recharge (140{\textendash}160 mm in different areas in the cave) measured represents 30{\textendash}35\% of annual rainfall (460 mm). Copyright {\textcopyright} 2011 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
	keywords = {Artificial tracers, Cave drips, Epikarst, percolation, Recharge, Vadose karst},
	isbn = {1099-1085},
	issn = {08856087},
	doi = {10.1002/hyp.8046},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.8046/full},
	author = {Sheffer, Nathan A. and Cohen, Moty and Efrat Morin and Tamir Grodek and Gimburg, Alex and Magal, Einat and Gvirtzman, Haim and Nied, Manuela and Isele, Daniel and Frumkin, Amos}
}
@article {Morin2011,
	title = {To know what we cannot know: Global mapping of minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitation},
	journal = {Water Resources Research},
	volume = {47},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {1{\textendash}9},
	abstract = {Fresh water resources, human societies, and ecosystems are expected to be strongly impacted by climate change, with precipitation trends being one of the most important elements that will be closely monitored. However, the natural variability of precipitation data can often mask existing trends such that the results appear as statistically insignificant. Information on the limitations of trend detection is important for risk assessment and for decision making related to adaption strategies under inherent uncertainties. This paper reports on an effort to quantify and map minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitation data series on a global scale. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to generate realizations of trended precipitation data for different precipitation means and coefficients of variance, and the MannKendall method was applied for detecting the trend significance. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) VASClimO data was used to compute the mean and coefficient of variance of annual precipitation over land and to map minimal detectable absolute trends. It was found that relatively high magnitude trends (positive or negative) have a low chance of being detected as a result of high natural variance of the precipitation data. The largest undetectable trends were found for the tropics. Arid and semiarid regions also present high relative values in terms of percent change from the mean annual precipitation. Although the present analysis is based on several simplified assumptions, the goal was to point out an inherent problem of potentially undetectable high absolute trends that must be considered in analyzing precipitation data series and assessing risks in adaption strategies to climate change.},
	keywords = {Kendall method, precipitation trends, Risk assessment, type II error},
	isbn = {0043-1397},
	issn = {00431397},
	doi = {10.1029/2010WR009798},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010WR009798/full},
	author = {Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Price2011,
	title = {Using Lightning Data to Better Understand and Predict Flash Floods in the Mediterranean},
	journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
	volume = {32},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {733{\textendash}751},
	abstract = {The FLASH project was implemented from 2006 to 2010 under the EU FP6 framework. The project focused on using lightning observations to better understand and predict convective storms that result in flash floods. As part of the project 23 case studies of flash floods in the Mediterranean region were examined. For the analysis of these storms lightning data from the ZEUS network were used together with satellite derived rainfall estimates in order to understand the storm development and electrification. In addition, these case studies were simulated using mesoscale meteorological models to better understand the meteorological and synoptic conditions leading up to these intense storms. As part of this project tools for short term predictions (nowcasts) of intense convection across the Mediterranean and Europe, and long term forecasts (a few days) of the likelihood of intense convection were developed. The project also focused on educational outreach through our website http://flashproject.org supplying real time lightning observations, real time experimental nowcasts, forecasts and educational materials. While flash floods and intense thunderstorms cannot be prevented as the climate changes, long-range regional lightning networks can supply valuable data, in real time, for warning end-users and stakeholders of imminent intense rainfall and possible flash floods. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.},
	keywords = {flash floods, FLASH project, Lightning, Thunderstorms},
	isbn = {1462-9011},
	issn = {01693298},
	doi = {10.1007/s10712-011-9146-y},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-011-9146-y},
	author = {Price, C. and Yair, Y. and Mugnai, A. and Lagouvardos, K. and Llasat, M. C. and Michaelides, S. and Dayan, U. and Dietrich, S. and Di Paola, F. D. and Galanti, E. and Garrote, L. and Harats, N. and Katsanos, D. and Kohn, M. and Kotroni, V. and Llasat-Botija, M. and Lynn, B. and Mediero, L. and Morin, E. and Nicolaides, K. and Rozalis, S. and Savvidou, K. and Ziv, B.}
}
@article {Gabella2011,
	title = {Using TRMM spaceborne radar as a reference for compensating ground-based radar range degradation: Methodology verification based on rain gauges in Israel},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
	volume = {116},
	year = {2011},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {D02114},
	abstract = {While intense scientific efforts have focused on radar precipitation estimation in temperate climatic regimes, relatively few studies have examined dry climatic regions. This paper examines rain depth estimation for a 19 day rainfall period in Israel, where the gauge spatial distribution is particularly nonhomogeneous. This fact exacerbates the main drawback of rain gauge observations, which is undersampling. Meteorological ground- based radar (GR) can supplement the desired information on precipitation distribution. However, especially in a complex orographic region, radar scientists are faced with beam broadening with distance, nonhomogeneous beam filling, and partial-beam occultation, together with changes in the vertical reflectivity profile. This paper presents an improvement of GR precipitation estimates thanks to a range adjustment based on spaceborne meteorological radar. In the past, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite radar was used for checking the GR mean field bias around the world. To our knowledge, however, it is the first time that GR-derived cumulative rainfall amounts show a better agreement with gauges, thanks to the mean field bias and range- dependent compensation derived using the well-calibrated Ku band TRMM radar as a reference. The average bias improves from +1.0 dB to -0.3 dB; more interesting and difficult to obtain is a reduction of the dispersion of the error. Using TRMM-based range compensation, the scatter decreases from 2.21 dB to 1.93 dB. We conclude that it is well worth trying to compensate for the GR range degradation.},
	issn = {0148-0227},
	doi = {10.1029/2010JD014496},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010JD014496},
	author = {Gabella, Marco and Efrat Morin and Notarpietro, Riccardo}
}
@article {Shohami2011,
	title = {Warming and drying of the eastern Mediterranean: Additional evidence from trend analysis},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
	volume = {116},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {1{\textendash}12},
	abstract = {The climate of the eastern Mediterranean (EM), at the transition zone between the Mediterranean climate and the semi-arid/arid climate, has been studied for a 39-year period to determine whether climate changes have taken place. A thorough trend analysis using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test with Sen{\textquoteright}s slope estimator has been applied to ground station measurements, atmospheric reanalysis data, synoptic classification data and global data sets for the years 1964{\textendash}2003. In addition, changes in atmospheric regional patterns between the first and last twenty years were determined by visual comparisons of their composite mean. The main findings of the analysis are: 1) changes of atmospheric conditions during summer and the transitional seasons (mainly autumn) support a warmer climate over the EM and this change is already statistically evident in surface temperatures having exhibited positive trends of 0.2{\textendash}1{\textdegree}C/decade; 2) changes of atmospheric conditions during winter and the transitional seasons support drier conditions due to reduction in cyclogenesis and specific humidity over the EM, but this change is not yet statistically evident in surface station rain data, presumably because of the high natural precipitation variance masking such a change. The overall conclusion of this study is that the EM region is under climate change leading to warmer and drier conditions.},
	issn = {01480227},
	doi = {10.1029/2011JD016004},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016004/full},
	author = {David Shohami and Dayan, Uri and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Rozalis2010,
	title = {Flash flood prediction using an uncalibrated hydrological model and radar rainfall data in a Mediterranean watershed under changing hydrological conditions},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {394},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {245{\textendash}255},
	publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
	abstract = {Flash floods cause some of the most severe natural disasters in Europe but Mediterranean areas are especially vulnerable. They can cause devastating damage to property, infrastructures and loss of human life. The complexity of flash flood generation processes and their dependency on different factors related to watershed properties and rainfall characteristics make flash flood prediction a difficult task. In this study, as part of the EU-FLASH project, we used an uncalibrated hydrological model to simulate flow events in a 27km2 Mediterranean watershed in Israel to analyze and better understand the various factors influencing flows. The model is based on the well-known SCS curve number method for rainfall-runoff calculations and on the kinematic wave method for flow routing. Existing data available from maps, GIS and field studies were used to define model parameters, and no further calibration was conducted to obtain a better fit between computed and observed flow data. The model rainfall input was obtained from the high temporal and spatial resolution radar data adjusted to rain gauges. Twenty flow events that occurred within the study area over a 15year period were analyzed. The model shows a generally good capability in predicting flash flood peak discharge in terms of their general level, classified as low, medium or high (all high level events were correctly predicted). It was found that the model mainly well predicts flash floods generated by intense, short-lived convective storm events while model performances for low and moderate flows generated by more widespread winter storms were quite poor. The degree of urban development was found to have a large impact on runoff amount and peak discharge, with higher sensitivity of moderate and low flow events relative to high flows. Flash flood generation was also found to be very sensitive to the temporal distribution of rain intensity within a specific storm event. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.},
	keywords = {Convective rain, flash floods, Hydrological model, Mediterranean climate, Urbanization, weather radar},
	isbn = {0022-1694},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.021},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.021},
	author = {Rozalis, Shahar and Efrat Morin and Yair, Yoav and Price, Colin}
}
@article {Sheffer2010,
	title = {Hydrometeorological daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) for the Western Mountain Aquifer, Israel: Model application and effects of temporal patterns},
	journal = {Water Resources Research},
	volume = {46},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {1{\textendash}16},
	abstract = {Recharge is a critical issue for water management. Recharge assessment and the factors affecting recharge are of scientific and practical importance. The purpose of this study was to develop a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) on the basis of a water balance principle with input from conventional and generally available precipitation and evaporation data and demonstrate the application of this model to recharge estimation in the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel. The WMA (area 13,000 km2)isa karst aquifer that supplies 360{\textendash}400 Mm3 yr-1 of freshwater, which constitutes 20\% of Israel{\textquoteright}s freshwater and is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. DREAM was linked to a groundwater flow model (FEFLOW) to simulate monthly hydraulic heads and spring flows. The models were calibrated for 1987{\textendash}2002 and validated for 2003{\textendash} 2007, yielding high agreement between calculated and measured values (R2 = 0.95; relative root-mean-square error = 4.8\%; relative bias = 1.04). DREAM allows insights into the effect of intra-annual precipitation distribution factors on recharge. Although annual precipitation amount explains \~70\% of the variability in simulated recharge, analyses with DREAM indicate that the rainy season length is an important factor controlling recharge. Years with similar annual precipitation produce different recharge values as a result of temporal distribution throughout the rainy season. An experiment with a synthetic data set exhibits similar results, explaining \~90\% of the recharge variability. DREAM represents significant improvement over previous recharge estimation techniques in this region by providing near-real-time recharge estimates that can be used to predict the impact of climate variability on groundwater resources at high temporal and spatial resolution.},
	isbn = {0043-1397},
	issn = {00431397},
	doi = {10.1029/2008WR007607},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008WR007607/full},
	author = {Sheffer, N. A. and Dafny, E. and Gvirtzman, H. and Navon, S. and Frumkin, A and Morin, E.}
}
@article {Benito2010,
	title = {Management of alluvial aquifers in two Southern African ephemeral rivers: Implications for IWRM},
	journal = {Water Resources Management},
	volume = {24},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {641{\textendash}667},
	abstract = {This paper summarises innovative research into the assessment of long-term groundwater recharge from flood events in dryland environments of the Kuiseb (Namibia) and the Buffels (South Africa) rivers. The integrated water resource management (IWRM) policies and institutions affecting the exploitation of groundwater resources in each of these developing countries are compared. The relatively large alluvial aquifer of the Kuiseb River (similar to 240 Mm(3)) is recharged from irregular floods originating in the upper catchment. Reported abstraction of 4.6 Mm(3) per year is primarily consumed in the town of Walvis Bay, although the groundwater decay (pumping and natural losses along the period 1983-2005) was estimated in 14.8 Mm(3) per year. Recharge is variable, occurring in 11 out of 13 years in the middle Kuiseb River, but only in 11 out of 28 years in the middle-lower reaches. In contrast, the Buffels River has relatively minor alluvial aquifers (similar to 11 Mm(3)) and recharge sources derive from both lateral subsurface flow and floodwater infiltration, the latter limited to a recharge maximum of 1.3 Mm(3) during floods occurring once every four years. Current abstractions to supply the adjacent rural population and a few small-scale, irrigated commercial farms are 0.15 Mm(3) yr (-aEuro parts per thousand 1), well within the long-term sustainable yield estimated to be 0.7 Mm(3) yr (-aEuro parts per thousand 1). Since independence in 1990, Namibia{\textquoteleft}s water resource management approach has focussed on ephemeral river basin management of which the Kuiseb Basin Management Committee (KBMC) is a model. Here, some water points are managed independently by rural communities through committees while the national bulk water supplier provides for Walvis Bay Municipality from the lower aquifers. This provides a sense of local ownership through local participation between government, NGOs and CBOs (community-based organisations) in the planning and implementation of IWRM. Despite the potential for water resource development in the lower Buffels River, the scope for implementing IWRM is limited not only by the small aquifer size, but also because basin management in South Africa is considered only in the context of perennial rivers. Since 2001, water service delivery in the Buffels River catchment has become the responsibility of two newly created local municipalities. As municipal government gains experience, skills and capacity, its ability to respond to local needs related to water service delivery will be accomplished through local participation in the design and implementation of annual {\textquoteleft}integrated development plans{\textquoteleft}. These two case studies demonstrate that a variety of IWRM strategies in the drylands of developing countries are appropriate depending on scales of governance, evolving policy frameworks, scales of need and limitations inherent in the hydrological processes of groundwater resources.},
	keywords = {Ephemeral rivers, Flood hydrology, Groundwater recharge, Integrated water resource management, IWRM, Namibia, South Africa},
	isbn = {0920-4741},
	issn = {09204741},
	doi = {10.1007/s11269-009-9463-9},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11269-009-9463-9},
	author = {Gerardo Benito and Rohde, Rick and Mary Seely and K??lls, Christoph and Ofer Dahan and Enzel, Yehouda and Todd, Simon and Botero, Blanca and Efrat Morin and Tamir Grodek and Roberts, Carole}
}
@article {Yair2010,
	title = {Predicting the potential for lightning activity in Mediterranean storms based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamic and microphysical fields},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
	volume = {115},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {1{\textendash}13},
	abstract = {A new parameter is introduced: the lightning potential index (LPI), which is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. The LPI is calculated within the charge separation region of clouds between 0{\textdegree}C and -20{\textdegree}C, where the noninductive mechanism involving collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water is most effective. As shown in several case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with explicit microphysics, the LPI is highly correlated with observed lightning. It is suggested that the LPI may be a useful parameter for predicting lightning as well as a tool for improving weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall.},
	keywords = {doi:10.1029/2008JD010868, forecast, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010868, Lightning, rain},
	issn = {21698996},
	doi = {10.1029/2008JD010868},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008JD010868/full},
	author = {Yair, Yoav and Lynn, Barry and Price, Colin and Kotroni, Vassiliki and Lagouvardos, Konstantinos and Efrat Morin and Mugnai, Alberto and Del Carmen Llasat, Maria}
}
@article {Morin2009a,
	title = {Flood routing and alluvial aquifer recharge along the ephemeral arid Kuiseb River, Namibia},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {368},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {262{\textendash}275},
	publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
	abstract = {Flood water infiltrates ephemeral channels, recharging local and regional aquifers, and it is the main water source in hyperarid regions. Quantitative estimations of these resources are limited by the scarcity of data from such regions. The floods of the Kuiseb River in the Namib Desert have been monitored for 46 years, providing a unique data set of flow hydrographs from one of the world{\textquoteright}s hyperarid regions. The study objectives were to: (1) subject the records to quality control; (2) model flood routing and transmission losses; and (3) study the relationships between flood characteristics, river characteristics and recharge into the aquifers. After rigorous quality-testing of the original gauge-station data, a flood-routing model based on kinematic flow with components accounting for channel-bed infiltration was constructed and applied to the data. A simplified module added to this routing model estimates aquifer recharge from the infiltrating flood water. Most of the model parameters were obtained from field surveys and GIS analyses. Two of the model parameters-Manning{\textquoteright}s roughness coefficient and the constant infiltration rate-were calibrated based on the high-quality measured flow data set, providing values of 0.025 and 8.5 mm/h, respectively. This infiltration rate is in agreement with that estimated from extensive direct TDR-based moisture measurements in the vadose zone under the Kuiseb River channel, and is low relative to those reported for other sites. The model was later verified with additional flood data and observed groundwater levels in boreholes. Sensitivity analysis showed the important role of large and medium floods in aquifer recharge. To generalize from the studied river to other streams with diverse conditions, we demonstrate that with increasing in infiltration rate, channel length or active channel width, the relative contribution of high-magnitude floods to recharge also increases, whereas medium and small floods contribute less, often not reaching the downstream parts of the arid ephemeral river at all. For example, more than three-quarters of the floods reaching the downstream Kuiseb River (with an infiltration rate of 8.5 mm/h) would not have reached similar distances in rivers with all other properties similar but with infiltration rates of 50 mm/h. The recharge volume in the downstream segment in the case of higher infiltration is mainly contributed by floods with magnitude ???93rd percentile, compared to floods in the 63rd percentile at an infiltration rate of 8.5 mm/h. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
	keywords = {Africa, Alluvial shallow aquifer, Aquifer recharge, Arid zone, Flash flood infiltration, Transmission loss},
	isbn = {0022-1694},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.015},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.02.015},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Tamir Grodek and Ofer Dahan and Gerardo Benito and Kulls, Christoph and Jacoby, Yael and Langenhove, Guido Van and Mary Seely and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {Kurtzman2009,
	title = {Improving interpolation of daily precipitation for hydrologic modelling: spatial patterns of preferred interpolators},
	journal = {Hydrol. Process},
	volume = {23},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {3281{\textendash}3291},
	abstract = {Detailed hydrologic models require high-resolution spatial and temporal data. This study aims at improving the spatial interpolation of daily precipitation for hydrologic models. Different parameterizations of (1) inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation and (2) A local weighted regression (LWR) method in which elevation is the explanatory variable and distance, elevation difference and aspect difference are weighting factors, were tested at a hilly setting in the eastern Mediterranean, using 16 years of daily data. The preferred IDW interpolation was better than the preferred LWR scheme in 27 out of 31 validation gauges (VGs) according to a criteria aimed at minimizing the absolute bias and the mean absolute error (MAE) of estimations. The choice of the IDW exponent was found to be more important than the choice of whether or not to use elevation as explanatory data in most cases. The rank of preferred interpolators in a specific VG was found to be a stable local characteristic if a sufficient number of rainy days are averaged. A spatial pattern of the preferred IDW exponents was revealed. Large exponents (3) were more effective closer to the coast line whereas small exponents (1) were more effective closer to the mountain crest. This spatial variability is consistent with previous studies that showed smaller correlation distances of daily precipitation closer to the Mediterranean coast than at the hills, attributed mainly to relatively warm sea-surface temperature resulting in more cellular convection coastward. These results suggest that spatially variable, physically based parameterization of the distance weighting function can improve the spatial interpolation of daily precipitation},
	keywords = {daily precipitation, interpolation methods, inverse distance weighted (IDW), local weighted regression (LWR), spatial variability},
	isbn = {1066800790},
	issn = {08856087},
	doi = {10.1002/hyp.7442},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.7442/abstract},
	author = {Kurtzman, Daniel and Navon, Shilo and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Bahat2009,
	title = {Rainfall-runoff modeling in a small hyper-arid catchment},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {373},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {204{\textendash}217},
	publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
	abstract = {Quantitatively estimating rainfall-runoff relations in extremely arid regions is a challenging task, mainly because of lack of in situ data. For the past 40 years, rain and floods have been monitored in the Nahal Yael catchment (0.5 km2) in southern Israel, providing a unique data set of runoff hydrographs and rainfall in a hyper-arid region. Here we present an exploratory study focusing on rainfall-runoff modeling issues for a small (0.05 km2) sub-catchment of Nahal Yael. The event-based model includes the computation of rainfall excess, hillslope and channel routing. Two model parameters of the infiltration process were found by calibration. A resampling methodology of calibration group composition is suggested to derive optimal model parameters and their uncertainty range. Log-based objective functions were found to be more robust and less sensitive than non-log functions to calibration group composition. The fit achieved between observed and computed runoff hydrographs for the calibration and validation events is considered good relative to other modeling studies in arid and semi-arid regions. The study indicates that, under the calibration scheme used, a lumped model performs better than a model representing the catchment division into three sub-catchments. In addition, the use of rain data from several gauges improves runoff prediction as compared to input from a single gauge. It was found that rainfall uncertainty dominates uncertainties in runoff prediction while parameter uncertainties have only a minor effect. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
	keywords = {Hyper-arid catchment, ISRAEL, Model calibration, Objective function, Rainfall-runoff model, Uncertainty analysis},
	isbn = {0022-1694},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.04.026},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.04.026},
	author = {Bahat, Yonatan and Tamir Grodek and Lekach, Judith and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Morin2009,
	title = {Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information},
	journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
	volume = {32},
	year = {2009},
	month = {jul},
	pages = {1066{\textendash}1076},
	publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
	abstract = {Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash- flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipita- tion estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Val- idation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10- year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70\% detection with no more than 30\% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.},
	keywords = {Dead Sea, Dry climate, flash floods, Hydrological model, weather radar},
	issn = {03091708},
	doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.11.011},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0309170808002145},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Jacoby, Yael and Navon, Shilo and Bet-Halachmi, Erez}
}
@article {Morin2007,
	title = {Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation over Mediterranean and dry climate regimes},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
	volume = {112},
	year = {2007},
	month = {oct},
	pages = {D20108},
	abstract = {viously applied in the Alps of Europe. Adjustment coefficients have been derived for 28 rainfall periods using 59 independent gauges of a quality-checked training data set. The validation was based on an independent data set composed of gauges located in eleven 20 ? 20 km2 validation areas, which are representative of different climate, topography and radar distance conditions. The WR and WMR methods were found preferable with a slight better performance of the latter. Furthermore, a novel approach has been adopted in this study, whereby radar estimates are considered useable if they provide information that is better than gauge-only estimates. The latter was derived by spatial interpolation of the gauges belonging to the training data set. Note that these gauges are outside the validation areas. As for the radar-adjusted estimates, gauge-derived estimates were assessed against gauge data in the validation areas. It was found that radar-based estimates are better for the validation areas at the dry climate regime. At distances larger than 100 km, the radar underestimation becomes too large in the two northern validation areas, while in the southern one radar data are still better than gauge interpolation. It is concluded that in ungauged areas of Israel it is preferable to use WMR-adjusted (or alternatively, simply WR-adjusted) radar echoes rather than the standard bulk adjustment method and for dry ungauged areas it is preferable over the conventional gauge-interpolated values derived from point measurements, which are outside the areas themselves. The WR and WMR adjustment methods provide useful rain depth estimates for rainfall periods for the examined areas but within the limitation stated above.},
	issn = {0148-0227},
	doi = {10.1029/2006JD008206},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2006JD008206},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Gabella, Marco}
}
@article {Morin2007a,
	title = {Studying the extremes: hydrometeorological investigation of a flood-causing rainstorm over Israel},
	journal = {Advances in Geosciences},
	volume = {12},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {107{\textendash}114},
	abstract = {Analysis of extreme hydrometeorological events is important for characterizing and better understanding the meteorological conditions that can generate severe rainstorms and the consequent catastrophic flooding. According to several studies (e.g., Alpert et al., 2004; Wittenberg et al., 2007), the occurrence of such extreme events is increasing over the eastern Mediterranean although total rain amounts are generally decreasing. The current study presents an analysis of an extreme event utilizing different methodologies: (a) synoptic maps and high resolution satellite imagery for atmospheric condition analysis; (b) rainfall analysis by rain gauges data; (c) meteorological radar rainfall calibration and analysis; (d) field measurements for estimating maximum peak discharges; and, (e) high resolution aerial photographs together with field surveying for quantifying the geomorphic impacts. The unusual storm occurred over Israel between 30 March and 2 April, 2006. Heavy rainfall produced more than 100mm in some locations in only few hours and more than 200mm in the major core area. Extreme rain intensities with recurrence intervals of more than 100 years were found for durations of 1 h and more as well as for the daily rain depth values. In the most severely affected area,Wadi Ara, extreme flash floods caused damages and casualties. Specific peak discharges were as high as 10{\textendash}30m3/s/km2 for catchments of the size of 1{\textendash}10 km2, values larger than any recorded floods in similar climatic regions in Israel.},
	issn = {1680-7359},
	doi = {10.5194/adgeo-12-107-2007},
	url = {https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00297032/},
	author = {Morin, E. and Harats, N. and Jacoby, Y. and Arbel, S. and Getker, M. and Arazi, A. and Grodek, T. and Ziv, B. and Dayan, U.}
}
@article {Dayan2006,
	title = {Flash flood {\textendash} producing rainstorms over the Dead Sea: A review},
	journal = {New frontiers in Dead Sea paleoenvironmental research: Geological Society of America Special Paper},
	volume = {401},
	year = {2006},
	pages = {53{\textendash}62},
	keywords = {Arid climate, Convection, Dead Sea, fl ash-fl oods, hydrological and climatological, mesoscale con-, rain cells, sea basin, settings of the dead, synoptic systems, vective system},
	doi = {10.1130/2006.2401(04).},
	url = {http://books.google.com/books?hl=en\&lr=\&id=hU73uKLdYwkC\&oi=fnd\&pg=PA53\&dq=Flash+flood+?+producing+rainstorms+over+the+Dead+Sea:+A+review\&ots=u77FEaEZHI\&sig=y1kW3rIe-rGOJLY9UdmxOOpk1\_k http://specialpapers.gsapubs.org/content/401/53.full},
	author = {Dayan, Uri and Morin, E.}
}
@article {Karklinsky2006,
	title = {Spatial characteristics of radar-derived convective rain cells over southern Israel},
	journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
	volume = {15},
	year = {2006},
	pages = {513{\textendash}520},
	abstract = {Weather radar data contain detailed information about the spatial structures of rain fields previously unavail- able from conventional rain gauge networks. This information is of major importance for enhancing our understanding of precipitation and hydrometeorological systems. This study focuses on spatial features of convective rain cells in southern Israel where the climate ranges fromMediterranean to hyper-arid. Extensive data bases from two study areas covered by radar systems were analyzed. Rain cell features were extracted such as center location, area, maximal rain intensity, spatial integral of rain intensity, major radius length, minor radius length, ellipticity, and orientation. Rain cells in the two study areas were compared in terms of feature distributions and the functional relationships between cell area and cell magnitude, represented by maximal rain intensity and spatial integral of rain intensity. Analytical distribution functions were fitted to the empirical distributions and the log-normal function was found to fit well the distributions of cell area, maximal rain intensity and major and minor radius lengths. The normal distribution fits well ellipticity em- pirical distribution, and orientation distribution was well-represented by the normal or uniform distribution functions. The effect of distance fromtheMediterranean coastline on cell features was assessed. Amaximum of cell rain intensity at the coastline and maximum cell density 15 km inland from the coastline were found. In addition, a gradual change of cell orientation was observed with a northwest-southeast orientation 30 km from the coastline at the Mediterranean Sea and to almost a west-east orientation 30 km from the coastline inland},
	issn = {09412948},
	doi = {10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0153},
	url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Efrat\_Morin/publication/233672686\_Spatial\_characteristics\_of\_radar-derived\_convective\_rain\_cells\_over\_southern{\.I}srael/links/0fcfd50fec4ab898b5000000.pdf},
	author = {Karklinsky, Matan and Efrat Morin}
}
@article {Morin2006,
	title = {Spatial patterns in thunderstorm rainfall events and their coupling with watershed hydrological response},
	journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
	volume = {29},
	year = {2006},
	month = {jun},
	pages = {843{\textendash}860},
	abstract = {Weather radar systems provide detailed information on spatial rainfall patterns known to play a significant role in runoff generation processes. In the current study, we present an innovative approach to exploit spatial rainfall information of air mass thunderstorms and link it with a watershed hydrological model. Observed radar data are decomposed into sets of rain cells conceptualized as circular Gaussian elements and the associated rain cell parameters, namely, location, maximal intensity and decay factor, are input into a hydrological model. Rain cells were retrieved from radar data for several thunderstorms over southern Arizona. Spatial characteristics of the resulting rain fields were evaluated using data from a dense rain gauge network. For an extreme case study in a semi-arid watershed, rain cells were derived and fed as input into a hydrological model to compute runoff response. A major factor in this event was found to be a single intense rain cell (out of the five cells decomposed from the storm). The path of this cell near watershed tributaries and toward the outlet enhanced generation of high flow. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis to cell characteristics indicated that peak discharge could be a factor of two higher if the cell was initiated just a few kilometers aside.},
	keywords = {Distributed hydrological models, Rain cell, rainfall, Spatial patterns, Thunderstorms, weather radar},
	issn = {03091708},
	doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.07.014},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170805001971},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Goodrich, David C. and Maddox, Robert A. and Gao, Xiaogang and Gupta, Hoshin V. and Sorooshian, Soroosh}
}
@article {Morin2005,
	title = {Rainfall modeling for integrating radar information into hydrological model},
	journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
	volume = {6},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {23{\textendash}30},
	abstract = {A spatial rainfall model was applied to radar data of air mass thunderstorms to yield a rainstorm representation as a set of convective rain cells. The modeled rainfall was used as input into hydrological model, instead of the standard radar-grid data. This approach allows a comprehensive linkage between runoff responses and rainfall structures},
	keywords = {Conceptual modeling, Distributed hydrological models, rainfall, Spatial patterns, Thunderstorms, weather radar},
	issn = {1530261X},
	doi = {10.1002/asl.86},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.86/full},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Goodrich, David C. and Maddox, Robert A. and Gao, Xiaogang and Gupta, Hoshin V. and Sorooshian, Soroosh}
}
@article {Morin2005a,
	title = {Relationship for Summer Monsoon Storms in Arizona},
	journal = {Weather and Forecasting},
	volume = {20},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {672{\textendash}679},
	abstract = {Radar-based estimates of rainfall rates and accumulations are one of the principal tools used by the National Weather Service (NWS) to identify areas of extreme precipitation that could lead to flooding. Radar-based rainfall estimates have been compared to gauge observations for 13 convective storm events over a densely instrumented, experimental watershed to derive an accurate reflectivity{\textendash}rainfall rate (i.e., Z{\textendash}R) relationship for these events. The resultant Z{\textendash}R relationship, which is much different than the NWS operational Z{\textendash}R, has been examined for a separate, independent event that occurred over a different location. For all events studied, the NWS operational Z{\textendash}R significantly overestimates rainfall compared to gauge measurements. The gauge data from the experimental network, the NWS operational rain estimates, and the improved estimates resulting from this study have been input into a hydrologic model to {\textquotedblleft}predict{\textquotedblright} watershed runoff for an intense event. Rainfall data from the gauges and from the derived Z{\textendash}R relation produce predictions in relatively good agreement with observed streamflows. The NWS Z{\textendash}R estimates lead to predicted peak discharge rates that are more than twice as large as the observed discharges. These results were consistent over a relatively wide range of subwatershed areas (4{\textendash}148 km2). The experimentally derived Z{\textendash}R relationship may provide more accurate radar estimates for convective storms over the southwest United States than does the operational convective Z{\textendash}R used by the NWS. These initial results suggest that the generic NWS Z{\textendash}R relation, used nationally for convective storms, might be substantially improved for regional application.},
	isbn = {0882-8156},
	issn = {0882-8156},
	doi = {10.1175/WAF878.1},
	url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF878.1},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Maddox, Robert A. and Goodrich, David C. and Sorooshian, Soroosh}
}
@article {Shamir2005,
	title = {The role of hydrograph indices in parameter estimation of rainfall-runoff models},
	journal = {Hydrological Processes},
	volume = {19},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {2187{\textendash}2207},
	abstract = {A reliable prediction of hydrologic models, among other things, requires a set of plausible parameters that correspond with physiographic properties of the basin. This study proposes a parameter estimation approach, which is based on extracting, through hydrograph diagnoses, information in the form of indices that carry intrinsic properties of a basin. This concept is demonstrated by introducing two indices that describe the shape of a streamflow hydrograph in an integrated manner. Nineteen mid-size (223{\textendash}4790 km2) perennial headwater basins with a long record of streamflow data were selected to evaluate the ability of these indices to capture basin response characteristics. An examination of the utility of the proposed indices in parameter estimation is conducted for a five-parameter hydrologic model using data from the Leaf River, located in Fort Collins, Mississippi. It is shown that constraining the parameter estimation by selecting only those parameters that result in model output which maintains the indices as found in the historical data can improve the reliability of model predictions. These improvements were manifested in (a) improvement of the prediction of low and high flow, (b) improvement of the overall total biases, and (c) maintenance of the hydrograph{\textquoteright}s shape for both long-term and short-term predictions. Copyright {\textcopyright} 2005 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
	keywords = {Model calibration, Objective function, Rainfall-runoff models, Streamflow indices},
	isbn = {1099-1085},
	issn = {08856087},
	doi = {10.1002/hyp.5676},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.5676/abstract},
	author = {Shamir, Eylon and Imam, Bisher and Efrat Morin and Gupta, Hoshin V. and Sorooshian, Soroosh}
}
@article {David-Novak2004,
	title = {Modern extreme storms and the rainfall thresholds for initiating debris flow on the hyperarid western escarpment of the Dead Sea, Israel},
	journal = {Bulletin of the Geological Society of America},
	volume = {116},
	year = {2004},
	pages = {718{\textendash}728},
	abstract = {Intense rainstorms cause debris flows on escarpments in hyperarid environments. In contrast with more temperate environments, there have been no direct observations on rainfall intensities and durations required for initiating debris flows in hyperarid environments. Here, we report rainfall volume and intensities, acquired by gauge and radar measurements, for two successive storms along the hyperarid (\textless50 mm/yr) western escarpment of the Dead Sea basin. These rainfall data were analyzed in conjunction with detailed mapping of debris flows that occurred during these storms to determine values of rainfall intensity and duration required to generate debris flows on the Dead Sea western escarpment. The first of the two analyzed storms occurred on 2 November 1995. During this storm, two convective cells rained sequentially within a 5 It period at the lower reaches of the Nahal David and the Nahal {\textquoteright}Arugot that dissects the western escarpment of the Dead Sea, Israel. This storm triggered debris flows in 38 small (\textless3 km(2)) and high-gradient drainage basins along the escarpment. Total rainfall volume and spatial distribution were determined by 10 cumulative rain gauges that were also used to calibrate rainfall-intensity distributions from radar data. For this storm, region, and landscape, rainfall intensities exceeding 30 mm/h for a duration of I h were required to initiate debris flows. A second storm in the same area on 1718 October 1997 allowed the evaluation of the results determined from the 1995 storm. In this second, more regional storm, maximum rainfall intensities were 19-27 mm/h for a duration of 45 min. These values, lower than the 30 mm/h minimal threshold defined in the previous storm, are consistent with the occurrence of only three debris flows. The small number of debris flows resulted from the concentration of the highest intensities of rainfall on the desert plateau and not directly on top of the canyon walls. Most first- to third-order basins draining the Dead Sea escarpment contain evidence of zero to three late Holocene (\textless3000 yr) debris flows. From analysis of the two storms, we propose that most of these debris flows were triggered by storms similar to the 2 November 1995 event in which localized convective cells had rainfall intensities of \textgreater30 mm/h and durations of at least 1 h. The small number of debris flows that has occurred during the late Holocene indicates that such events are rare at the scale of individual drainage basins.},
	keywords = {Arid environment, Dead Sea, Debris flows, Escarpment, Extreme storms, Floods},
	issn = {00167606},
	doi = {10.1130/B25403.2},
	url = {http://gsabulletin.gsapubs.org/content/116/5-6/718.full.pdf+html},
	author = {David-Novak, Hagit Ben and Efrat Morin and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {Amitai2004,
	title = {Uniting space, ground, and underwater measurements for improved estimates of rain rate},
	journal = {IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters},
	volume = {1},
	year = {2004},
	pages = {35{\textendash}38},
	abstract = {Global precipitation is monitored from a variety of platforms including spaceborne, ground-, and ocean-based platforms. Intercomparisons of these observations are crucial to validating the measurements and providing confidence for each measurement technique. Probability distribution functions of rain rates are used to compare satellite and ground-based radar observations. A preferred adjustment technique for improving rain rate distribution estimates is identified using measurements from ground-based radar and rain gauges within the coverage area of the radar. The underwater measurement of rainfall shows similarities to radar measurements, but with intermediate spatial resolution and high temporal resolution. Reconciling these different measurement techniques provides understanding and confidence for all of the methods.},
	keywords = {Meteorological radar, Probability distribution function, Rain gauge, Rain intensity, rainfall, Spaceborne radar, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Underwater acoustic, Validation},
	issn = {1545598X},
	doi = {10.1109/LGRS.2004.824767},
	url = {http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs\_all.jsp?arnumber=1291376\&tag=1},
	author = {Amitai, E. and Nystuen, J. A. and Liao, L. and Meneghini, R. and Morin, E.}
}
@article {Morin2003a,
	title = {Estimating Rainfall Intensities from Weather Radar Data: The Scale-Dependency Problem},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
	volume = {4},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {782{\textendash}797},
	abstract = {Meteorological radar is a remote sensing system that provides rainfall estimations at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The radar-based rainfall intensities (R) are calculated from the observed radar reflectivities (Z). Often, rain gauge rainfall observations are used in combination with the radar data to find the optimal parameters in the Z{\textendash}R transformation equation. The scale dependency of the power-law Z{\textendash}R parameters when estimated from radar reflectivity and rain gauge intensity data is explored herein. The multiplicative (a) and exponent (b) parameters are said to be {\textquotedblleft}scale dependent{\textquotedblright} if applying the observed and calculated rainfall intensities to objective function at different scale results in different {\textquotedblleft}optimal{\textquotedblright} parameters. Radar and gauge data were analyzed from convective storms over a midsize, semiarid, and well-equipped watershed. Using the root-mean-square difference (rmsd) objective function, a significant scale dependency was observed. Increased time- and space scales resulted in a considerable increase of the a parameter and decrease of the b parameter. Two sources of uncertainties related to scale dependency were examined: 1) observational uncertainties, which were studied both experimentally and with simplified models that allow representation of observation errors; and 2) model uncertainties. It was found that observational errors are mainly (but not only) associated with positive bias of the b parameter that is reduced with integration, at least for small scales. Model errors also result in scale dependency, but the trend is less systematic, as in the case of observational errors. It is concluded that identification of optimal scale for Z{\textendash}R relationship determination requires further knowledge of reflectivity and rain-intensity error structure.},
	isbn = {1525-755X},
	issn = {1525-755X},
	doi = {10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<0782:ERIFWR>2.0.CO;2},
	url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004\%3C0782:ERIFWR\%3E2.0.CO\%3B2},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Krajewski, Witold F. and Goodrich, David C. and Gao, Xiaogang and Sorooshian, Soroosh}
}
@article {Morin2003,
	title = {Investigating the effect of catchment characteristics on the response time scale using a distributed model and weather radar information},
	journal = {Weather Radar Information and Distributed Hydrological Modelling (Proceedings of symposium I-IS03 held during IUOG2003 at Sapporo. July 2003).},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {177{\textendash}185},
	url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Efrat\_Morin/publication/235346406{\.I}nvestigating\_the\_effect\_of\_catchment\_characteristics\_on\_the\_response\_time\_scale\_using\_distributed\_model\_and\_weather\_radar\_information/links/02bfe50fd7cb0b7ab8000000},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Georgakakos, Konstantine P. and Shamir, Uri and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {Morin2002,
	title = {Objective, observations-based, automatic estimation of the catchment response timescale},
	journal = {Water Resources Research},
	volume = {38},
	year = {2002},
	pages = {1212},
	abstract = {A new characteristic timescale of a catchment is presented, the response timescale (RTS). It is a range of averaging time intervals which, when applied to catchment rainfall, yield smoothed time series that best approximate that of the resultant runoff. In determining the RTS, nothing is assumed about the nature of the rainfall-runoff transformation. In addition, this new measure is shown to be robust against measurement errors. An objective, automatic, observations-based algorithm is described that introduces the concept of peaks density for the estimation of RTS. Estimation is exemplified for single and multiple rainfall-runoff events through application to small catchments in Panama and Israel. In all cases, relatively stable values of response timescale are obtained. It is concluded that at least for the case studies, the response timescale is an intrinsic characteristic of the catchment and it is generally expected to be different from the catchment lag time and time of concentration. INDEX},
	keywords = {doi:10.102, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000808},
	isbn = {0043-1397},
	issn = {0043-1397},
	doi = {10.1029/2001WR000808},
	url = {http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2002/2001WR000808.shtml},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Georgakakos, Konstantine P. and Shamir, Uri and Garti, Rami and Enzel, Yehouda}
}
@article {Morin2001,
	title = {The characteristic time scale for basin hydrological response using radar data},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {252},
	year = {2001},
	pages = {85{\textendash}99},
	abstract = {The transformation of rainfall into runoff at a basin outlet is the combined effect of many hydrological processes, which occur at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. However, determining the scale of the combined hydrological response of the basin is still problematic and concepts for its definition are yet to be identified. In this paper high-resolution meteorological radar data are used for the determination of a characteristic temporal scale for the hydrological response of the basin - the {\textquoteright}response time scale{\textquoteright} (Ts*). Ts* is defined as the time scale at which the pattern of the time-averaged radar rainfall hietograph is most similar to the pattern of the measured outlet runoff hydrograph. The existence of such similarity at a relatively stable time scale for a specific basin indicates that it is an intrinsic property of the basin and is related to its hydrological response. The identification of the response time scale is carried out by analysis of observations only, without assuming a specific rainfall-runoff model. Ts* is examined in four small basins (10-100 km2) in Israel. The spatial scale is assumed as the entire basin. For all analyzed basins a stable response time scale is identified. Relatively short time scales are found for the urban and arid basins (15-30 min), while for the rural basins longer time scale are identified (90-180 min). The issues of relationship between the response time scale and basin properties and modeling at the response time scale have yet to be determined. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.},
	keywords = {Hydrological response, Radar hydrology, Rainfall-runoff relationships, Semiarid areas, Small basins, Time-scale},
	isbn = {0022-1694},
	issn = {00221694},
	doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00451-6},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169401004516},
	author = {Efrat Morin and Enzel, Yehouda and Shamir, Uri and Garti, Rami}
}
@article {Dayan2001,
	title = {A severe autumn storm over the Middle-East: Synoptic and mesoscale convection analysis},
	journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
	volume = {69},
	year = {2001},
	pages = {103{\textendash}122},
	abstract = {At times, a pronounced trough of low barometric pressure extends from equatorial Africa northward, over the Red Sea and the eastern Mediterranean countries, i.e., the Red Sea Trough. The associated weather is usually hot and dry, and consequently the atmosphere becomes conditionally unstable. In cases in which additional moisture is supplied and dynamic conditions become supportive, as the case analyzed here, intense thunderstorms occur, with extreme rain rates, hail and floods. The storm herein analyzed caused extensive damage both in casualties and property and evolved in two main consecutive phases: In the first a Mesoscale Convective System that moved from Sinai northward over Israel dominated, and in the second deep convection was organized mainly along a cold front. Data analysis indicates several synoptic-scale factors that had a supportive effect on the storm formation and intensification: Conditional instability established by the Red Sea trough, mid-level moisture transport from Northern Africa, and upper-level divergence imparted by both polar and subtropical jet streams over the Middle-East. Mesoscale features were further investigated by means of a hydro-meteorological observational analysis with high spatio-temporal resolution using raingauge and radar data, and satellite imagery. It is shown that local factors, particularly topographic effects, play a major role in the evolution, intensity and spatial organization of the convective activity. Our findings support results of a numerical study of another autumn rainstorm associated with the Red Sea trough. In the present case we identify an additional contributing factor, i.e., a mid-latitude upper-level trough that further intensified the storm as it was approaching the Middle-East.},
	isbn = {0177-798X},
	issn = {0177798X},
	doi = {10.1007/s007040170038},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s007040170038},
	author = {Dayan, U. and Ziv, B. and Margalit, A. and Morin, E. and Sharon, D.}
}
