@article {doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0232.1,
	title = {The Role of Zonally Averaged Climate Change in Contributing to Intermodel Spread in CMIP5 Predicted Local Precipitation Changes},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	volume = {33},
	number = {3},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {1141{\textendash}1154},
	abstract = {AbstractWhile CMIP5 models robustly project drying of the subtropics and more precipitation in the tropics and subpolar latitudes by the end of the century, the magnitude of these changes in precipitation varies widely across models: for example, some models simulate no drying in the eastern Mediterranean while others simulate more than a 50\% reduction in precipitation relative to the model-simulated present-day value. Furthermore, the factors leading to changes in local subtropical precipitation remain unclear. The importance of zonal-mean changes in atmospheric structure for local precipitation changes is explored in 42 CMIP5 models. It is found that up to half of the local intermodel spread over the Mediterranean, northern Mexico, East Asia, southern Africa, southern Australia, and southern South America is related to the intermodel spread in large-scale processes such as the magnitude of globally averaged surface temperature increases, Hadley cell widening, polar amplification, stabilization of the tropical upper troposphere, or changes in the polar stratosphere. Globally averaged surface temperature increases account for intermodel spread in land subtropical drying in the Southern Hemisphere but are not important for land drying adjacent to the Mediterranean. The factors associated with drying over the eastern Mediterranean and western Mediterranean differ, with stabilization of the tropical upper troposphere being a crucial factor for the former only. Differences in precipitation between the western and eastern Mediterranean are also evident on interannual time scales. In contrast, the global factors examined here are unimportant over most of the United States, and more generally over the interior of continents. Much of the rest of the spread can be explained by variations in local relative humidity, a proxy also for zonally asymmetric circulation and thermodynamic changes.},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0232.1},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0232.1},
	author = {Garfinkel, Chaim I and Adam, Ori and Morin, Efrat and Enzel, Yehoudah and Elbaum, Eilat and Bartov, Maya and Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita and Dayan, Uri}
}
@article {Peleg2014a,
	title = {CMIP5-predicted climate shifts over the East Mediterranean: Implications for the transition region between Mediterranean and semi-arid climates},
	journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
	volume = {2153},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {2144{\textendash}2153},
	abstract = {The effect of climate change on the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region, a region that reflects a transition between Mediterranean and semi-arid climates, was examined. This transition region is affected by global changes such as the expansion of the Hadley cell, which leads to a poleward shift of the subtropical dry zone. The Hadley cell expansion forces the migration of jet streams and storm tracks poleward from their standard course, potentially increasing regional desertification. This article focuses on the northern coastline of Israel along the EM region where most wet synoptic systems (i.e. systems that may lead to precipitation) are generated. The current climate was compared to the predicted mid-21st century climate based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. A warming of 1.1{\textendash}2.6 {\textdegree}C was predicted for this region. The models predicted that rain in the region will become less frequent, with a reduction of 1.2{\textendash}3.4\% in 6-h intervals classified as wet synoptic systems and a 10{\textendash}22\% reduction in wet events. They further predicted that the maximum wet event duration in the mid-21st century would become shorter relative to the current climate, implying that extremely long wet systems will become less frequent. Three of the models predicted shrinking of the wet season length by up to 15\%. All models predicted an increasing occurrence frequency of Active Red Sea Troughs (ARSTs) for the RCP8.5 scenario by up to 11\% by the mid-21st century. For the RCP4.5 scenario, a similar increase of up to 6\% was predicted by two of the models.},
	keywords = {Climate change, Cyprus low, Desertification, East Mediterranean, Hadley cell, Israel, Red Sea Trough, Synoptic classification},
	issn = {08998418},
	doi = {10.1002/joc.4114},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4114/full},
	author = {Peleg, Nadav and Bartov, Maya and Morin, Efrat}
}
